Fremantle open the 2026 finals series against Hawthorn at a sold out Optus Stadium on Thursday night, with the winner earning a week off and a passage straight through to a preliminary final.
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Best Bet
Freo are a clear bet at home on Thursday, given Hawthorn have consistently shown they fall short against good teams.
The Hawks have been a terrible bet all year against top teams. From 15 games against the top 10, they are just 4-11 against the line.
Since Round 6, Hawthorn have beaten just two teams still alive in September: Adelaide, at their Launceston fortress, and Carlton in a drenched game at the MCG. That Carlton game is the only time they have covered the line against a current finalist since Round 6.
The Dockers also own this match up this decade, going 8-1 head to head and covering the line in seven of nine. At Optus, they have won six straight against the Hawks and covered in five.
These teams only met once this year, at Optus, with the Dockers running out 15 point winners. The Hawks led by 15 at three-quarter time before Freo kicked four goals in the last nine minutes with some help from Wharfie Time. Freo were an inaccurate 12.16, and the expected score had the margin at 22 points.
The home side were dominant around the contest, scoring 49 points to 21 from clearances while also winning inside 50s by 14 and clearances by 12.
Freo also managed a good number of sore players in their final home and away game, with Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman and Sam Switkowski all held out and Murphy Reid over a groin knock. All four return fresh, while the Hawks regain Jack Ginnivan.
One man to stop is Jai Newcombe, who was the highest rated player in three finals last year. The loss of Brennan Cox to a calf strain may also leave the Dockers a touch vulnerable in defence.
Outside of that Freo should be far too good and win through to the preliminary final.
Same Game Multi
Freo have conceded the second most disposals to general defenders over the last five weeks, and Sicily has had 20 or more in four of five against them.
Luke Ryan has had 15 touches in every game since Round 4 and has been taking the majority of the Fremantle kick ins.
As below, Michael Frederick has a good record against the Hawks, who have been vulnerable against medium forwards.
Value Bets
Very keen on Fast Freddy here. He has kicked two and three in his last two games against the Hawks, who have been the best match up for medium forwards over the last five games. The double figures for three goals also appeals.
As mentioned, Newcombe’s record in finals is superb, hitting 30 or more in three of five and 28 in another. He has also managed to hit the scoreboard in three of five in September, and scored a major in each of his last two games. There are some crazy prices about for two or more as well.
Brayshaw hasn’t hit 30 since Round 15, but is another player with a great finals record. He has only played three finals, but he had 32 touches in each of them. A big price for another 30.
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