Fremantle host Geelong at Optus Stadium on Friday night in a do or die Semi Final, with the minor premiers trying to avoid a straight sets exit and the winner earning a trip to the SCG to face Sydney in a Preliminary Final.
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Best Bet
The Cats should be right in this.
While many were shocked by Freo’s flat performance last week against Hawthorn, it did come after an ordinary last month for the minor premiers.
The Dockers have now lost three of their last four games and failed to cover in four of their last five. Their only line cover in that period was by 1.5 points against Adelaide.
Their much lauded defence has fallen from first for points conceded across the first 19 rounds, giving up 70.2 points, to fifth at 80.6.
That’s a real concern coming in against Geelong, whose scoring has exploded lately. The Cats have won seven consecutive matches and have averaged 117.8 points a game across their last five, ranked second in the competition.
The Dockers have been poor in a number of key statistical categories too. Of the remaining finalists, Freo are last for contested disposals, ground balls and scores from turnover.
Qualifying final losers in semi finals have slowly become poor picks. Between 2000 and 2008, qualifying final losers won 89 per cent of semi finals, but since 2017 that has dropped to 56 per cent.
Between 2000 and 2014, only two top four teams went out in straight sets. Since 2014 there have been 12, including minor premier Adelaide last year.
The Cats’ record at Optus against Freo is solid, going 3-3 and covering in four of the last five.
Geelong’s away record against good teams is also sensational, winning six of their last eight and covering the line in all eight, seven of those as outsiders.
Their experience in finals is miles ahead of Freo as well. The Cats came into this year with 314 games of combined finals experience, the Dockers just 82.
There are unlikely to be any major changes, other than perhaps Brandon Walker being replaced in defence for Freo.
The Cats are a big show to cause the upset.
Same Game Multi
The ruck is one area Freo can exploit. Geelong concede more disposals to rucks than any other team, and Jackson had 28 and 27 in his last two against the Cats.
Danger exploded for five goals last week, making it 10 in his last three games. Freo’s defenders outside Alex Pearce are a genuine concern right now.
Mannagh has kicked a goal in eight straight.
Value Bets
Mannagh has attended 70 per cent and 62 per cent of centre bounces in the last two weeks and responded with 33 and 25 touches. He remains a great price to hit 25 again.
As mentioned, Danger enters September in the best goal kicking form of his year, coming off a three and a five in his last two games. The Dockers rank 12th for goals conceded to medium forwards over the last five weeks.
While the Cats are the play here, Luke Jackson might be the best bet of the night. As mentioned, he has had 28 and 27 in two games against Mitch Edwards this year, and has racked up 23 in two of the last three weeks. Great bet.
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