Adelaide host the Western Bulldogs at a sold out Adelaide Oval on Saturday night, with the Crows chasing their first finals win in nine years and the Dogs looking to back up their thrilling wildcard win over Collingwood.
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Best Bet
The money has come for the Crows this week and they should run out comfortable winners here.
Adelaide look to be hitting September in as good a form as they have been in all year. The Crows have dealt out some big wins lately, with six of their last seven wins coming by more than 16 points and three of their last five coming by more than 50.
This looks a great match up for them. The Dogs backline is severely undersized, which has forced Luke Beveridge to play a very defensive gameplan in the second half of the season with plenty of numbers behind the ball. If the Crows can break even around the contest then their forwards could feast.
The Crows smashed the Dogs by 57 points last time they met, back in Round 14 at Marvel, with Jordan Dawson playing one of the best individual games of the season.
The Dogs don’t tag in the middle, and have lost one of their better defensive mids in Matt Kennedy this week, so the skipper and the white hot Izak Rankine could run riot.
The forward line is also a worry for the Dogs, who have only averaged 77.8 points a game over their last 10 games, ranked 13th.
Aaron Naughton and Arty Jones combined for eight of their 14 goals last week against the Pies. The Crows are the second toughest match up for key forwards this season, so it’s hard to see Naughton having the same impact here, while Jones is yet to prove he can back up a big game in his young career.
The Dogs’ only hope will be to turn this into a high pressure scrap, but they may not have the petrol tickets left after a final second thriller against the Pies last week.
Expect the Crows to right the wrongs of last year’s finals and run out big winners.
Same Game Multi
Thilthorpe has not been at his best this season due to back issues, so the week off will do him wonders. He has kicked 10 goals in his last four games.
Josh Rachele has kicked two or more in four straight against the Dogs.
Rankine is racking up the touches lately, with 36, 39 and 35 in his last three games.
Value Bets
The Dogs have suffered some big losses in the back half of the season, with their last four defeats coming by 57 points against the Crows, plus 35, 37 and 23. There is no AFL history to draw on with wildcards, but in the VFL, teams coming off the wildcard are just 1-5 with an average losing margin of more than 50 points.
Smalls tend to impact finals more than talls, which should bring Rachele into the game. The small forward kicked four against the Dogs in Round 14, the fourth straight time he has kicked two or more against them.
Rankine is yet to play in a final, but you can bet he will be keen to impact after missing September last year through suspension. This is a huge price for a mark the star mid has hit in three straight games, against a team that refuses to tag.
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