AFL Tips - Brownlow Medal 2025 Preview & Picks

The best betting event of the year has arrived with the 2025 Brownlow Medal set to be awarded on Monday night in Melbourne. Here’s our preview.

How to Pick a Brownlow Winner

There are some tried and tested strategies for finding a Brownlow winner. Here’s what history tells us:

1. Only back midfielders

This one is obvious to anyone who has ever watched a Brownlow. The last non-midfielder to win was Scott Wynd in 1992. Sorry Maxy, no Brownlow for you.

2. Winning teams win Brownlows

Players from successful sides attract more votes. Only four of the last 27 winners came from teams that missed finals. Cross off Nasiah, Bont, Ed Richards and Zak Butters.

3. Stick to the standouts

Be wary of teams with multiple contenders pinching votes off each other. Only two of the last 12 winners had a teammate also finish in the top 10. Rowell/Anderson a concern? Smith/Holmes?

4. Roughies Don’t Win

The longest-priced winner in the last 20 years was Matt Priddis at $41. Stick to the favourites for outright betting, but certainly look at the roughies in other markets as we’ve seen some very strange results in recent years. Shout out to Angus Brayshaw and Jarryd Lyons.

5. The big one: contested possessions

This is historically the ticket to Brownlow glory. Since 2008, every Brownlow winner has finished top six in contested possessions. This year’s top six are Green, Serong, Rowell, Anderson, Gawn and George Hewitt (who will absolutely not be winning).

If this rule holds true, we can scratch Nick Daicos (ranked 24th), Jordan Dawson (32nd) and Bailey Smith (37th).

Best Bets

Matt Rowell

Brownlow Medal Winner

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$13

Matt Rowell is great value to take home Charlie.

The Gold Coast bull has been an umpire’s favourite since polling three votes in each of his first career games. Last year, teammate Noah Anderson was the $1.25 favourite to poll the most votes at the Suns, but Rowell smashed him 25 votes to 14.

He ticks the contested possession box and with Gold Coast making finals for the first time, there should be even more votes on offer. The question is how many Anderson takes off him, but the pair were usually head and shoulders above their teammates, meaning they should often split the three and two votes.

If history is any guide, Rowell will be collecting plenty of threes.

Nick Daicos

Brownlow Medal Winner

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$2.50

We had Daicos as our pick in our pre-season Brownlow preview at $5.50 and he remains a strong chance to romp in after polling 35 votes last year — a tally that would have won any other Brownlow in history.

There are factors working against the Collingwood champ though. His 2024 form was better, with 117 coaches’ votes compared to 96 this year despite the Pies winning four more games. He was top six for contested possessions last year with 319, but that dropped to 252 this season, ranked 24th.

He is too short to back outright, but we will have him in exactas and boxed trifectas in case he gaps the field.

Roughies

Caleb Serong

Brownlow Medal Winner

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$51

Tom Green

Brownlow Medal Winner

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$67

The Brownlow is rarely won by a roughie, with Matt Priddis at $41 the longest-priced winner in recent times.

There is still a case for both Green and Serong at big odds. Each played finals, both finished top six last year, and they ranked #1 and #2 for contested possessions in 2025.

They are worth a dabble to win and must-haves in exotics and top three and five betting.

Exotics

Matt Rowell/Nick Daicos

Quinella

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$11

Matt Rowell/Nick Daicos/Tom Green

Boxed Trifecta

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$67

Matt Rowell/Nick Daicos/Caleb Serong

Boxed Trifecta

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$81

Team Multi

C.Serong (Fre), M.Rowell (GC), T.Green (GWS), J.Newcombe (Haw)

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$4.54

Again, we are backing Rowell to outpoll Anderson at Gold Coast.

Tom Green is a must-include multi booster. He was far more consistent than his only other rival under $26, Finn Callaghan, who has a poor polling history and ranked 63rd for contested possessions.

Jai Newcombe finished 10th last year and was ninth for contested possessions this season. His closest competition at Hawthorn came from forwards Dylan Moore and Jack Gunston.

Caleb Serong has consistently outpolled Andrew Brayshaw, even when both have been tipped to perform well.

For those swinging for the fences, Josh Daicos (without Nick) and Luke Davies-Uniacke are also worth a look.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.