The AFL’s first ever Wildcard Final pits the Western Bulldogs against Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night, with the winner earning an elimination final against Adelaide or Geelong and the loser going home.
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Best Bet
Has dour, tough final written all over it.
These two teams have a history of low scoring games, with seven of the last 10 going under at an average of just 151.8 points. Only two of the last 10 have cleared 169.5.
After being the most offensive side in the competition in 2025, the Dogs have flipped this year and gone hard defensively. Since Round 15 no team has conceded fewer points, with the Dogs averaging 76 against. It has led to seven of their last nine going under the total.
Collingwood games have gone the other way, averaging 181 across their last 10, but finals tend to result in more pressure and more contests. The Pies’ last eight finals have averaged just 148.3 points.
The Pies are missing key players in Scott Pendlebury, Harry Perryman and Brayden Maynard, which will impact their synergy and scoring. Isaac Quaynor does return to shore up the defence.
The Dogs are set to play Tim English and Aaron Naughton, but Tom Liberatore will miss.
There is a chance of a shower as well, which will only help the cause. Since 2010, 70% of rain-affected games have gone under the total.
With finals averaging eight fewer points than home and away matches since 2010, expect a low scoring start to 2026 finals.
Same Game Multi
Keen on the Dogs here. Beveridge has timed his run well, entering off two good performances against Carlton and Melbourne. Midfield depth in a forecast tough contested final will favour the Dogs, who have also covered the line in four of five against the Pies at the MCG. Collingwood are 1-2-7 against top 10 teams this year, while the Dogs, who had the toughest draw of any team, are 7-7.
Looking to the mids here, but expecting Ed Allan to give either Bont or Ed Richards some defensive attention, so steering clear of the stars. Matt Kennedy has been getting more centre bounce attendances recently with Liberatore out and Ryley Sanders pushed out of the rotation. He has had 27 and 26 touches in the last two weeks.
Nick Daicos has had 37, 39 and 32 in his last three against the Dogs, and Beveridge prefers to go head to head in the midfield rather than tagging.
Allan has had 15 or more disposals himself in 12 straight.
Value Bets
Small forwards are generally a better play in finals than talls, as the high pressure games tend to mean poorer entries to marking forwards. Schultz has a great record against the Dogs, kicking eight goals in his last three against them.
With a tight game forecast, the Dogs by a narrow margin is a good bet. They have been kings of the close finish in 2026, going 8-2-1 in games decided by fewer than 18 points, while the Pies have been just okay at 5-5-2.
Roan Steele has shown a real ability to hit the scoreboard this season. From 18 games he has kicked 15 goals, but he often manages two when he does trouble the scorer, having kicked a single goal five times and two goals five times. He kicked two in two of his last three and had 24 touches without a goal last week against the Lions. Big price.
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