Carlton and Melbourne clash at the MCG in a Wildcard Final for the right to march on in season 2026. A Melbourne win sends them to Adelaide and the Dogs to meet Geelong. A Carlton win sends the Blues to face Geelong instead.
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Everything points to the rampaging Blues here.
The Dees cost themselves dearly losing to the Dogs last week. They now arguably have their weakest line up of the year, missing key pillars Jake Lever, Jacob van Rooyen and Matt Jefferson, who join Brody Mihocek on the sidelines. Jack Viney returns for his first game of 2026 off just one VFL game, while Jake Melksham will play just his seventh game of the season.
They run into a red hot Carlton, who are 11-2-1 since Josh Fraser took over in Round 10. The Blues enter off a brilliant win against minor premier Fremantle, having also smashed the Lions and Saints in the last month of the season and drawn with the Dogs.
Melbourne’s season had been built on a dominant record at the MCG in 2026, having won and covered their first nine at the home of footy. However, they have now dropped and failed to cover in two of their last three at home, losing to the Cats and Dogs there in recent weeks.
The Blues have dominated this match up lately, winning and covering in four of five. Their meeting at the MCG earlier in the season saw Carlton lead 44-1 in the second quarter before a fadeout that became a trademark of the Michael Voss era saw the Dees win by 23. Fortunatley for Blues fans, those fadeouts seem to be a thing of the past.
Melbourne will need a massive Max Gawn game, but his record against Carlton isn’t great. He averages his second fewest disposals against the Blues and has only received coaches votes in one of his last six against them.
Carlton have all the momentum entering this one and should be too strong.
Same Game Multi
Walsh has only missed 25 touches once in his last 10 games. The Dees haven’t been tagging lately, and Cripps remains the more dangerous mid if they were to add defensive pressure.
Cerra’s move to half back has seen him hit 20 touches in five straight. He has also had 20 in seven straight against the Dees.
The Dees have been vulnerable against small forwards all year and Frankie Evans enters finals in electric form, kicking five last time out against Freo.
Value Bets
Fritsch has an elite finals record, kicking two or more goals in each of his last seven finals, including bags of four and six in the premiership year.
The Dees have conceded the equal most three goal hauls to small forwards this year, including three to Arty Jones last week. Evans is in great form and could cash in, while Ainsworth also appeals off three last time out.
Inside mids have racked them up against Melbourne recently, with Matt Rowell, Ollie Wines and Ed Richards all hitting 30 in the last month. Cripps is the obvious play but will get more opposition attention than Hewett, who has had 33, 26, 30 and 29 in his last four games.
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