Sydney host Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday afternoon in a Qualifying Final, with the winner earning a week off and a passage straight through to a preliminary final.
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The Lions are a different breed in September and they should put Sydney to the sword here.
The reigning premier have been savage in finals lately, covering the line in 10 of their last 11. Their average winning margin across their last nine finals wins has been 33 points, and three of their last four finals wins have come by 47 or more.
The Lions switch on when playing the best. Since 2023 they have gone 33-14 head to head and 30-17 against the line against top eight teams, winning and covering in their last five.
This includes their Round 16 demolition of Sydney, a 43 point win at the Gabba. Brisbane destroyed the Swans out of the middle that night, winning clearances by 13 and outscoring them from stoppage 48-18.
Concerningly for Sydney, Chad Warner collected the nine coaches votes and kicked four goals from 28 touches that night, while Isaac Heeney had 31 and a goal.
The loss of Warner and Heeney, plus Nick Blakey, James Jordon and Riley Bice, is just enormous.
Sydney rallied bravely to beat a holidaying North Melbourne in the final round of the season without those five, but it turns out there may have been real issues at the Roos, with Alastair Clarkson since sacked.
Even with their star players, the Swans’ recent form against quality teams has been poor. They have lost four of their last five against top eight sides and failed to cover in five of their last six. Their only win against a finalist in the second half of the year was against a banged up Bulldogs in Round 17.
The Lions regain Hugh McCluggage and are close to full strength entering September. It’s a recipe for a big win for Chris Fagan’s team.
Same Game Multi
Sydney have been most vulnerable against small and medium forwards this year. Kai Lohmann enters finals in hot form and kicked 2.2 against the Swans in Round 16.
Charlie Cameron has kicked two or more in nine straight games.
Zac Bailey has had 20 or more disposals in 11 of his last 12, including in his last two against Sydney.
Value Bets
Think the Swans could be in for a reality check here. The Lions are a different breed in finals, with three of their last four finals wins coming by 47 or more, including the 2024 Grand Final against Sydney. The Swans lost by 43 against Brisbane last time out with their full team.
The Irishman has been redeployed as a pressure forward this year and produced his best game last time out against Collingwood, kicking four including a possible goal of the year. He also kicked two against Sydney back in Round 16 during a four match streak of kicking two or more, and has now kicked two or more in eight of his last 20.
Think Ashcroft could run riot with Sydney missing their best tagger in James Jordon. The Lions dominated from stoppage in Round 16, and Ashcroft has kicked two or more goals in three of his last seven. He also kicked two behinds last time against the Swans.
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