The Brownlow Medal is one of the best betting events on the sporting calendar. Form, role, team success and historical voting trends all matter, and the numbers often tell a clearer story than the narrative.
History provides a clear starting point. Midfielders have claimed every Brownlow since Scott Wynd in 1992, and that grip on the award is unlikely to loosen. More specifically, it is contested ball winners who consistently outpoll. We leaned into that profile to back Matt Rowell last year to win the Brownlow, despite the market expecting teammate Noah Anderson to finish ahead of him.
There is an added wrinkle this season, however. For the first time, umpires will receive stats sheets when casting votes. That could subtly shift behaviour, potentially favouring higher-possession outside midfielders who accumulate strongly but do not always dominate under the umpires’ noses. Whether that adjustment meaningfully alters voting patterns, or simply reinforces existing trends, will be one of the key variables in the 2026 count and should perhaps mean punters approach this year’s betting with some caution.
Winner
It would not take much for Nick Daicos to win his first Brownlow after finishing second in the past two seasons with 35 and 32 votes, totals that are often good enough to take out the medal.
With Scott Pendlebury, Jordan De Goey and Steele Sidebottom’s influence likely to wane, Daicos should stand out even more this season. The Pies may win slightly fewer games this year, but they should still win more than enough for him to build a winning tally.
There is no spoil at $5.00, and if he attracts a Marcus Windhager tag in the opening round his price may even drift, creating a better entry point.
Next Best
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera surged late last season, polling 14 votes across his final 10 games and establishing himself as a true star of the competition. When he finds space and controls territory, he is highly visible.
He should also benefit from the introduction of the stats. He infamously missed the three votes in the best individual performance of the year against Melbourne, and a more data-informed voting process may better reward his outside impact.
The Saints are expected to improve after their off-season shopping spree and there are few other consistent vote takers on their list. If St Kilda climb the ladder, Wanganeen-Milera’s Brownlow tally can only benefit.
Lay
The Suns are difficult to support in the Brownlow market at this stage. There are simply too many variables and too much potential vote dilution.
Reigning winner and proven vote pig Matt Rowell will miss early rounds through injury, Noah Anderson has historically underperformed relative to market expectation, and the arrival of Christian Petracca introduces another proven vote-getter into the mix. That creates immediate competition for votes.
Potential breakout campaigns from players like Bailey Humphrey only add further uncertainty. There may be a Suns ticket worth backing later in the season but early positioning carries more risk than reward.
Best Value
The Brisbane champion is enormous value to claim a third Brownlow. If the Lions go on the tear projected in our season preview and push toward 20 wins, there will be votes available, and history shows Lachie Neale knows exactly how to collect them.
He has long been an umpire favourite. Neale was best on ground in Brisbane’s preseason win over the Suns and, had he been fully fit for the Grand Final, may well have contended for the Norm Smith after a dominant second half.
Importantly, he has completed a full preseason and is now trading at $51 after touching $101 earlier in the summer. For a two-time winner and proven vote magnet in a projected top side, that price is simply too big.
