Tennis Tips - US Open Men's Final Tips

Ben Shelton is looking to be the first American man to win the US Open since 2003. Can he get past Alexander Zverev who will play in his third consecutive Grand Slam Final?

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton

Best Bet

Ben Shelton

Match

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Value Bet

Ben Shelton 3-2

Set Betting

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This matchup is littered with concerns surrounding both players.

Firstly, Ben Shelton is 0-5 against Alexander Zverev over his career – and it’s not close. Shelton has lost the last ten sets against Zverev, winning just the first set they ever played at the 2024 Cincinnati Masters.

That being said, they haven’t met this year and Shelton is a different player. In 2025 he was 27-15 on hard courts – this year, he’s 24-6.

The concerns for Zverev – the form line is weak. Struggled in the lead-up, struggled in the first-round against Sonego, struggled against Halys, and then in the Semi Final although he won in straight sets, he won three more points than Khachanov for the match, and had a serve and return percentage of under 100. The German is yet to face a player inside the top-20, and the two opposition ranked in the 20s are clay courters in Tabilo and Darderi.

This will be Zverev’s sixth Grand Slam Final, winning his first at this year’s French Open but he made hard work of it against Cobolli going to five. Three of Zverev’s five Grand Slam Finals have gone to five sets – including the only one he was favourite in. The German put himself in winnable positions against Alcaraz at the French Open in 2024, and led 2-0 sets against Thiem in 2020, but failed to close them out. The total games line for this is 42.5, suggesting that this one could also go the distance, which isn’t good for Zverev.

It’s not just the fact that the American crowd will be in Shelton’s corner, but Zverev’s fifth set record hasn’t been great of late. Yes, he beat Sonego and Halys in five this US Open but they’re not top-50 players. Prior to this US Open, he had won just one of the last five five-setters. Against top-ten opposition over his career, Zverev is just 1-9 in five setters, with his only win coming at the 2023 US Open.

We’ve seen Shelton beat Alcaraz for the first time a few days ago – I think he can do the same with Zverev in this Final, as predicted at the start of this tournament.

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.