Tennis Tips - US Open Day 10 Tips

Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton meet in the Quarter Final – can the American cause a huge upset against the red-hot favourite?

Best Bet

Frances Tiafoe -1.5

Game Handicap

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$1.83

Frances Tiafoe at the US Open is a different beast, and I’m surprised to see him at this price against fellow American Alex Michelsen.

Tiafoe has a 2-0 career record over Michelsen, and has played well as a favourite on hard court against the top-50 this season, going 5-2 – one of those losses an injury retirement. From these six completed matches, Tiafoe has covered in five of those.

As for Michelsen, he’s 2-7 on hard courts vs the top-20 this season, covering in 44% of those matches. Although he was outstanding against the in-form Nakashima, I just can’t see him getting past a red-hot Foe.

Next Best

Sabalenka vs Noskova Over 21.5

Total Games

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$1.83

The first real test for Aryna Sabalenka, who has played well this US Open but is yet to face anyone inside the top-50 – in fact, three of her four opponents have been outside the top-90.

Sabalenka is 5-2 against the top-10 this year, but 71.4% of those matches have gone over the total games, with four of the last six going the distance.

It’s a similar story for Noskova, with 71.4% of her seven matches against the top-10 this year going over total games, with three of her last four against the top-10 going to three sets.

Although Sabalenka beat Noskova easily in straight sets earlier in the year, off the back of Wimbledon this is a new Noskova.

Value Bet

Ben Shelton

Match

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$4.33

I thought Tommy Paul would compete with Alcaraz purely as a grinder against the underdone Spaniard, but he just doesn’t have the weapons to do any real damage – but Ben Shelton does.

Shelton has had an incredibly difficult run and has advanced to the Quarter Final with a serve and return percentage of 107.6 – Alcaraz is at 112.9, but aside from Paul he has not played anyone inside the top 70 in his first three matches.

The pair have met three times, with Shelton covering the game handicap twice including on Alcaraz’s preferred surface at Roland Garros last year, where the American took him to four tight sets. If he serves well, he’s a chance here.

Multi

Tiafoe (M) / Sabalenka (W) / Pegula (W) = $2.85

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.