Tennis Tips - Men's US Open 2026 Outright Tips

The US Open is littered with top-line Americans, and our tournament pick will be the first American to win the US Open since 2003.

Champion

Ben Shelton

Men's US Open

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$12

Was dominant in Montreal, winning the tournament without dropping a set, and is well rested entering the US Open.

Unfortunately for Shelton, it’s truly a horror draw. Griekspoor and Hurkacz in the first two round won’t be easy, but he should still be too good. He then likely cops a nightmare second week with Cincinnati winner Arthur Fils and Carlos Alcaraz – but Shelton did win his last matchup with the Frenchman, and he won’t get a better look at Alcaraz who has been out due to injury for an extended period of time leading into Flushing Meadows.

Will be an incredible run to take it out – but based on what we’ve seen from Shelton in Montreal, he’s a big chance to win his home major.

Runner Up

Flavio Cobolli

Men's US Open

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$34

Underrated Italian who has had a sensational year, reaching the Final at the French Open.

Cobolli reached the Semi Final at Cincinnati in the lead-up, going down to eventual winner Arthur Fils, and gets an extremely friendly quarter of the draw.

Taylor Fritz in the Round of 16 will be a challenge, but the American has had ongoing knee issues all year. I like Cobolli’s chances to go deep based on the opportunities of the top-half opening up.

Semi Finalists

Alexander Zverev

Men's US Open

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$4.00

The German has been absolutely blessed with the draw, with the only real difficulty beginning at the Round of 16 against Musetti – who hasn’t been great since returning from injury.

Will likely have to get through a rampaging Rafael Jodar still, but overall I don’t think Zverev could have asked for a better draw.

That being said – the recent hard court form of Zverev is concerning. It’s been a big year for Zverev winning the French Open and reaching the Wimbledon Final – has Zverer run out of petrol tickets?

Frances Tiafoe

Men's US Open

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$41

Is a proven performer at the US Open, and showed his intentions with a great tournament at Cincinnati where he lost the Final to Fils.

Tiafoe made the Semi Final at the US Open in both 2022 and 2024, losing both in five sets – while in 2023 he was a Quarter Finalist.

The bottom half will be carnage at the Round of 16, regardless of who is remaining – but two players have to advance to the Semis, and I think Tiafoe can at a nice price.

Roughies

Brandon Nakashima

Men's US Open

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$51

The bottom half is a nightmare, but Nakashima probably features in the best part of the nightmare.

The American is in career best form reaching the Final in Montreal in the lead-up, and probably faces Djokovic in the Round of 16 – a matchup he’s a big chance in based on Djokovic’s limited tennis in 2026.

I think Nakashima is a huge chance to reach the Quarter Finals – but it will get difficult from there, with poor career records against Tiafoe and Shelton.

Learner Tien

Men's US Open

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$67

I’m not sure whether he even gets past the first round against Nuno Borges, but he will enter that as favourite – and if he does win, American Learner Tien receives one of the friendlier seed runs in the entire draw.

Tien will need to get past Mensik in the third-round, but the Czech hasn’t been great since his epic French Open run.

We could see another American in the Quarter Finals with Tien, at a nice price.

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.