Tennis Tips - US Open Day 7 Tips

Australian Dane Sweeny had the win of his life against Lorenzo Musetti in the second-round, and he’s not without a shot against another Italian in the third-round.

Best Bet

Iga Swiatek -5.5

Game Handicap

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$1.90

Iga’s record against Bouzkova is dominant over their career, and it’s a really bad matchup for the Czech who simply doesn’t have the weapons to trouble Swiatek.

The Pole has played Bouzkova on three occasions, winning in straight sets all three times, and covering the -5.5 game handicap 100% of the time.

Most recently, the pair played at this year’s Australian Open with Swiatek winning 6-2 6-3, while at Wuhan last year the score was 6-1 6-1. Can’t see anything different this time around.

Next Best

Flavio Cobolli

Match

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$1.80

I don’t think it really matters what we see from Cobolli, he just finds a way to win more often than not.

The Italian produced similar results at Wimbledon this year, in which he still advanced to the Quarter Final stage.

Cobolli beat Blockx a few weeks ago Cincinnati, and the Belgian is just 2-3 on hard against the top-100 this season – those two wins against pure clay courters.

Darderi vs Sweeny Over 35.5

Total Games

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$1.83

It’s a short price for Darderi in this against the Australian, with the total games line suggesting it’s probably going to be won in straight sets or a blowout fourth.

Darderi is just 7-6 on hard courts this year against opposition ranked 60+, with nine of the 11 completed matches going over the total games.

Sweeny has shown enough this US Open that he’ll be putting in a fight against Darderi, and we could see this go the distance.

Starodubtseva vs Rybakina over 18.5

Total Games

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$1.80

Rybakina hasn’t been troubled yet this US Open, nor should she have – but we’re now in the third round and with the Kazakh entering Flushing Meadows under an injury cloud, this is where we could see her game unravel.

She faces world 58 Starodubtseva – the Ukrainian knocked Rybakina out of the French Open in the second round this year.

Against players ranked 30 to 80 this year on all surfaces, 73% of Rybakina’s matches have gone over the total games. I just can’t see this being regulation considering their recent history and the injury cloud.

Value Bet

Arthur Gea

Match

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$2.20

The Frenchman faces a young American in the most bizarre part of the draw, but Arthur Gea might be a name we’ll hear a lot more of in the near future.

Gea ia 9-1 on hard courts this year against players ranked inside the top-120, which includes wins over Lehecka, Shapovalov and Cerundolo.

Zheng is 5-5 against the same sample size, but no genuine scalps, with a much lower serve and return percentage, going at 100.3 against Gea’s 106. Like the Frenchman at a price.

Multi

Cobolli (M) / Fritz (M) / Swiatek (W) / Anisimova (W) / Osaka (W) = $3.65

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.