Tennis Tips - US Open Day 6 Tips

Ben Shelton is a huge chance to reach his first Grand Slam Final this US Open, but his draw hasn’t been easy – and the American gets another tricky matchup in the third round.

Best Bet

Karolina Muchova -4.5

Game Handicap

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$1.80

No side effects from the short stint away from tennis post-surgery after that Wimbledon Final, only dropping four games so far this US Open.

Muchova is 16-0 on hard this year when favourite, with a game handicap coverage rate of 73.3% – this jumps up to 83.3% when facing top-50 opposition.

Emma Navarro has done well to get to the third-round considering how poor her form has been in 2026, but the American is 0-5 on hard court against top-50 opposition this year, covering just once.

Next Best

Mariano Navone

Match

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$1.80

I think Navone will be too good against his fellow countryman in this.

With wins over Djokovic and Berrettini this US Open, the Argentine is in form. Navone is 5-4 on hard against top-50 opposition this year, while Etcheverry is just 1-7 in the same sample. On all surfaces against the top-50 this year, Navone is 11-12 with a serve and return percentage of 100.6, while Etcheverry is just 5-15 going at 96.4.

Despite the rankings, Navone is certainly in better form and is probably more suited to the hard courts.

Shelton vs Shapovalov Over 38.5

Total Games

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$1.90

No easy matches for Ben Shelton this US Open, and the American gets another tricky opponent in Denis Shapovalov.

The Canadian hasn’t beaten Shelton from their four meetings, but he’s certainly troubled him. Three of the four have gone over the total games, while the one that didn’t still included a set that went to seven.

Shelton is 9-2 against players ranked between 40-150 this year on hard, but 64% of those have gone over the total games – the 38.5 appears a little low.

Diana Shnaider -2.5

Game Handicap

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$1.80

Diana Shnaider has performed extremely well on hard court when listed as favourite this year.

The Russian is 16-1 as a favourite on hard, with a coverage rate of 70.6%, and this North American hard court swing, Shnaider has covered in her last eight matches as a favourite.

It’s a short line against Townsend, who generally plays well on home soil, but the American is 0-6 against top-20 opposition this year on all surfaces, so will have her work cut out for her.

Value Bet

Daniel Merida

Match

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$2.37

I think Michelsen is the favourite, purely due to it being his home major, but the 21-year-old Spaniard just beat the American in Canada fairly convincingly.

Although it did go to three sets, Merida had a serve and return percentage of 108 compared to the 92 of Michelsen, winning the deciding set 6-1.

It was a big upset win by Michelsen in the second-round against Nakashima, but after seeing what Merida did to Rublev, this one is no gimme.

Multi

Shelton (M) / Lehecka (M) / Kostyuk (W) / Shnaider (W) / Muchova (W) / Noskova (W) = $6.36

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.