AFL Tips – Victoria v Western Australia – State of Origin 2026

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Best Bet

Over 194.5

Total Points

$1.90

This match is essentially an All Star Game and similar to the NBA version, we can expect plenty of scoring and very little defence.

There have been two State of Origin games since the concept was benched in the Mid 1990s.

The 2008 game between Victoria and the Allies saw 257 points scored (Victoria won by 137-120) while the 2020 (pre Covid) game saw 264 points scored (Victoria won by 154-108).

While the players will no doubt be excited to play for their states, it is the middle of February, and with another seven months until the finals, don’t expect the chasing and tackling to be of a high standard.

The quarters are of standard length, while hot weather, always a pointer towards high scoring, is expected with a top temperature of 32.

The total doesn’t just feel a bit low, it genuinely feels like it should be five or six goals higher at least.

Goal Scorer

Chad Warner

2+ Goals

$5.50

Noah Anderson

2+ Goals

$6.50

Bailey Smith

2+ Goals

$9.00

Hugh McCluggage

2+ Goals

$4.00

In the 2020 game it was mostly the midfielders who did the damage on the scoreboard. This makes sense for two reasons.

Firstly, the teams have never played together and have very little chemistry or gameplan.

Secondly, in an exhibition game the players will be less inclined to ‘lower the eyes’ and try and hit a target, rather than simply have a ping themselves.

Good options for this bet include noted goal kicking mids such as Chad Warner and Hugh McCluggage, while even those less noted for goals like Bailey Smith and Noah Anderson look good value.

The 2+ prices have been included here but play with single and 3+ markets as well.

Value Bet

Over 224.5

Alternate Totals

$5.50

Happy to play some of the bigger numbers for totals – anything up to 250, potentially, if the books open the markets.

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