The $1.01 favourite Nick Daicos will win the 2026 Brownlow Medal but there is plenty of interest in the club-by-club vote markets, where 18 separate races are still live and several look badly mispriced.
Be sure to check out our outright Brownlow Medal tips as well ahead of Monday’s count.
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Best Bet
The market has this as a two horse race but may have the wrong horse in front.
Jordan Dawson is $1.40 on the back of 27 votes last year to Rankine’s 15. That gap is doing all the work in the price, and it largely ignores how good Rankine was in the back half of the season.
Rankine has ranked inside Champion Data’s top five player ratings since Round 17 and averaged 36 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals across his last four home and away games. He could have five three voters in his final eight games.
His 37 disposal masterclass against Richmond was logged at 223 ranking points, the highest an Adelaide player has ever recorded and rated the best individual display in a decade.
Both are All Australians and both played the year out. Most predictors have this as a 1-2 vote margin to the skipper, so at the price, Rankine is a good bet for the upset.
Multi
Four clubs where the price still has a little juice left in it. You could take these as a multi or pick your favourites to boost a value play.
Clayton Oliver at $1.67 ranked second in the competition for contested possessions in his first year at GWS. Finn Callaghan led the Giants with 21 votes last season and missed the back end of 2026 through injury, which clears the road for the former Demon, who has a terrific polling history.
Sam Walsh at $1.20 is the Carlton pick with Patrick Cripps out of the market. Walsh played every game and missed 25 touches only once across his last 10. Jagga Smith is the Rising Star and the danger at $6, but no polling history hurts his chances.
Shaun Mannagh at $1.15 is the shortest leg and the safest. With Bailey Smith and Max Holmes excluded, Mannagh kicked 32 goals, well past his previous best, and goaled in eight straight to close the season. He had 2-3 genuine match-winning performances which could edge him toward ten votes.
Rising gun Max Hall at $1.25 finished inside the top 10 for score involvements this year, one of the 16 stats the umpires have access to for the first time in 2026. With Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera out of the market there is no obvious alternative at a club that polled just 55 votes last season, and Hall played every game.
Value Bets
LDU is a real umpire favourite, polling 18 votes in the second half of 2024 in a team that only won two games. He outpolled Harry Sheezel 11 votes to 10 last season despite being the outsider of the pair and had his best year for score involvements. Sheezel is the better player on raw numbers, but LDU’s explosiveness around the ball has always caught the umpires’ attention.
The Suns are a genuine three way race between Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Anderson, and the market is not pricing it that way. Anderson polled 25 votes last season, second only to Rowell’s winning 39, and played 22 games in 2026 compared with Rowell’s 18. We know the umpires love Rowell but there may be some regression with stats added into the mix, while Petracca burnt out after a hot start to the year.
With Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards both out of the market, the Dogs field is desperately even and Kennedy played all 23 games including a nine coaches vote effort against Essendon. Ryley Sanders at $6 and Bailey Dale at $8 are the two to leave alone with Kennedy an ultra-consistent ball-winning midfielder who can also pop up for a goal or two.
Really bad teams can be a fun way to bet on Brownlow night, as it may only take 2-3 votes to score a return. Tim Taranto polled 20 of Richmond’s 33 votes last year and is out of this market, which leaves a wide open field at a club that barely troubles the umpires. Former Cat Patrick Retschko had a huge game in his side’s Round 11 over Essendon, where he polled the second most coaches votes, and was also prominent in a win over West Coast later in the year. Three votes may do the job.
Jai Newcombe led the Hawks with 17 votes last year and is excluded, leaving a market headed by Jack Gunston at around even money. Ten votes did the job for this market last year, and Ginnivan played 23 games, including five where he polled coaches votes and two where he is a genuine BOG chance. Just a huge price for what could be a very even market.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.
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