Fremantle and Brisbane meet at the MCG on Saturday with the Dockers chasing a first premiership and the Lions a third straight flag.
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Best Bet
A third straight flag is on the way for Brisbane, who are just the team for the big stage.
This side has been irrepressible on the last Saturday in September, winning the past two flags by 60 and 41 points.
The gulf in finals experience is stark. The Lions have played 23 finals since 2019 to Fremantle’s six, and entered this September with 355 games of finals experience, ranked first among the eight, against the Dockers’ 82, ranked dead last of the ten finalists. Brisbane will likely field 21 premiership players. Freo will have three.
Brisbane’s attacking approach means they almost always play in shootouts. Their last four games have averaged an absurd 243 points, with eight of 12 clearing 200, and they have averaged 118.4 points across their last 14 while kicking 122 and 120 in their two Grand Final wins.
So the question is whether Fremantle can put on 110 to 120 points with no big game experience at the MCG against the two-time reigning champs.
They can score, but less consistently. The Dockers have averaged 98 over their last 14 and hit triple figures seven times. They did put 120 on the Cats in the Semi Final, but they were ridiculously accurate, with expected score having them four goals lower.
The bigger issue is tall against small. Fremantle have leaned on three key forwards to post big scores all year, while Brisbane have a far more balanced attack.
Key forwards typically don’t perform on Grand Final day. From the 29 goals kicked in last year’s decider, just two came from a key forward, one each to Logan Morris and Shannon Neale. The year before it was five of 27, and the year before that four of 25.
Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Pat Voss haven’t fired these finals either, kicking 12 goals between them across three games.
If that trend holds, Freo become reliant on Shai Bolton, Murphy Reid and Isaiah Dudley to hit the scoreboard, and that group is terribly outgunned by Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Kai Lohmann and Cam Rayner. It becomes very difficult to see them reaching 120.
Should Lachie Neale’s ban be upheld it would help Freo at the centre bounce, which has produced a huge number of goals this finals series. Luke Jackson needs a monster game, but his last two against the Lions have been ordinary, returning player ratings of 9.6 and 5.1.
Both sides look likely to make defensive changes, with Noah Answerth the likely inclusion as Brisbane’s best lockdown small defender and Oscar McDonald possibly making way for Brennan Cox.
These teams met once this year, at the Gabba, with Freo running away 25 point winners as the key forwards combined for 11 goals. History says they won’t match that on Grand Final day. Otherwise the Lions are 6-4 from the last 10, though Freo have covered in six of them. The Dockers are 5-5 in their last 10 at the MCG and have covered in one of the last five, while Brisbane are 8-2 with seven covers.
Freo don’t have the firepower to match the Lions on the last Saturday in September. The Lions should solidify their place in the history books with a third-straight premiership.
Value Bet
Back this now. The Lions have won the last two Grand Finals by more than 40 points, and eight of the last 12 deciders have been decided by 40 or more, excluding 2020. Once the result is settled in a Grand Final, the floodgates can open.
Five of Brisbane’s last six wins have come by 40 or more. Take them to win big, with the 60+ at around $9.00 also worth a play.
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