AFL Tips - Fremantle v Brisbane Lions - Same Game Multi Tips 2026

Everyone loves a Same Game Multi and there’s always value to be found in player prop markets in the AFL Grand Final.

As always, Betseeker has you covered with picks for the biggest game of the year, including the Grand Final betting preview and the Norm Smith Medal.

One thing worth understanding before locking in any legs. Finals footy does very different things to disposals and goals. Possession dries up, with players averaging around a disposal below their own benchmark against top eight opposition and roughly 60 per cent of finals performances landing under the player’s own norm. That has held in every season since 2011. Not one finals series in 16 years has averaged up.

Goals are a different story. Scoring rates in finals sit essentially where they do in the home and away season, and this year’s finals have been higher scoring and straighter in front of goal than the equivalent top eight matchups. So the play is to be fussy with disposal lines and lean into the goal markets.

The one thing that could turn all of it upside down is the weather, with 2 to 8mm forecast for Saturday. A genuinely wet deck drags scoring down and pushes the goals toward the contested forward 50 grind rather than the open play. Keep an eye on it before locking anything in.

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Who to Avoid

Rebounding half backs

This is the archetype finals punish hardest, down around three disposals a game.

Jordan Clark is the obvious one. He averages 22.7 and has gone over 20.5 in 69 per cent of his games, which makes the line look appealing. But Conor McKenna has taken on opposition half backs all year, holding Jarman Impey and Nick Blakey to 18 and 19 respectively. Darcy Wilmot tells the same story from the other side, going 19, 15 and 11 through the finals against a benchmark closer to 24. Zorko has held up better in finals.

Tagging targets

Josh Dunkley doesn’t employ a hard tag but applies enough defensive pressure to his opponent to nullify their impact. The big question is who he will target, with Caleb Serong the most likely victim, while Hayden Young and even Shai Bolton are potential options too. On the Freo side, don’t rule out Matthew Johnson spending some time on Will Ashcroft.

The tall forwards

Key forwards simply do not dominate Grand Finals. Of the 29 goals kicked in last year’s decider, just two came from a key forward. The year before it was five of 27, and the year before that four of 25.

Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Pat Voss have managed 12 goals between them across three finals, and Amiss has historically gone backwards in September. Fremantle need them, but a Grand Final is the wrong day to price them up, and a wet one even less so.

Harris Andrews

Andrews is enormous for Brisbane and will be central to how they control the game, but his touch counts have been 11, 12 and 11 across the three finals, all under his season average. Expect Voss to go to him from the opening bounce. A 10+ leg looks free and isn’t.

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Disposals

Brayshaw has a remarkable finals record, clearing this mark in all six of his finals and picking up 29 or more in five of them. With either Caleb Serong or Hayden Young likely to cop some opposition attention, Brayshaw looks the best Docker to include for disposals.

Fifteen straight and seven of his last eight against Fremantle. Bailey also finished third in Norm Smith voting last year off 23 disposals, so he is capable on the big stage.

Perfect records of 13 from 13 at the MCG and eight from eight against Brisbane. Ryan has taken more kick-ins than any other Fremantle player this season, and that volume should get him there comfortably even with defender disposals down across the finals.

Value

McCluggage is a bit of a forgotten man these finals, following an injury interrupted season. The Brisbane co-captain has had three games back and gone 16, 16 and 23 last week. He hit 25 in three of his four finals last year and could be ready to explode. A good bet for two or three snags too.

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Goals

The anchor leg for all same game multis. Cameron has kicked multiple goals in 22 of 26 games this season and 10 of his last 11 against Fremantle, and he booted four in last year’s decider.

Eleven from 13 this season and six of his last seven against the Dockers. With Logan Morris likely drawing Alex Pearce, the in-form Hipwood gets the more favourable of Fremantle’s key defensive matchups.

The Freo leg. Bolton has kicked 1.2 and 2.2 in his last two against the Lions and was electric out of the middle in the preliminary final with 21 disposals and three goal assists. Take him for scoreboard involvement rather than volume, because his disposal numbers historically dip in finals.

Value

Lohmann is one of the few genuine finals risers in this game, averaging two and a half goals above his norm across his career Septembers. He booted four in the 2024 decider and recorded a career-best five in the preliminary final, and as a small forward he is better suited than most to a greasy ball. A big game player.

Don’t steam into this one but the Prancing Pony loves playing at the MCG, kicking 15 goals from three games at the home of footy. As mentioned, talls don’t typically dominate Grand Fianls, but Voss is worth a small throw given his record.

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Same Game Multis

As per the Grand Final preview, Brisbane are the confident play, with the shootout argument pointing at the over as well. Take the total out if the rain arrives in earnest.

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