AFL Tips - Brownlow Medal 2026 Value Plays

Nick Daicos will win the 2026 Brownlow Medal at $1.01, and Betseeker has already covered the outright markets in the 2026 Brownlow preview and the club races in the leading vote-getter guide. What’s left are the weird and wonderful markets only the Brownlow can provide. Individual three-vote games, season vote totals and to poll a vote, at the best betting event of the year.

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Best Value Bet

Izak Rankine 25+ Votes
Total Votes
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$10.50

Double figures looks a massive price for a player who could genuinely poll six or seven three vote games.

Rankine has ranked inside Champion Data’s top five player ratings every week since Round 17 and averaged 36 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals across his last four home and away games.

His main rival for Crows votes is Jordan Dawson, who polled 27 last season but ranked outside the top 50 for contested possessions, this year historically the best indicator of Brownlow performance. Rankine was inside the top 20 and could be in for a big night.


Three-Vote Games

Dylan Stephens
Round 1 North Melbourne v Port Adelaide 3 Votes
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$4.00

North won this one by 46 points and the AFL’s best players read Stephens, Parker, Comben, Sheezel, Davies-Uniacke. Stephens first, Sheezel fourth.

Stephens had 29 disposals, 11 marks and a goal in what was comfortably the best game of his career. Sheezel’s 31 touches are the reason he is the $2.20 favourite, but Stephens was the more impactful player. Comben’s 14-intercept possession game could also be a smoky for the three at $8.50.

Jack Ginnivan
Round 5 Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs 3 Votes
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$5.50

Ginnivan had 28 disposals and a classy goal playing up the ground in a comprehensive Hawks win that ended the Bulldogs’ unbeaten start. Jai Newcombe is the market favourite on the back of 14 clearances, but Ginnivan was named first in AFL.com.au’s best players and at better than $5.00 he is a good play.


Season Vote Totals

Max Gawn 25+ Votes
Total Votes
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$3.75

Gawn polled 23 votes last year and finished fourth in the AFL for contested possessions this season. Melbourne won 15 games and he was their most important player in most of them.

The stats change matters here more than for anyone. Hitouts are among the 16 categories the umpires now receive, and no ruckman in the competition racks them up like Gawn.

Will Ashcroft 25+ Votes
Total Votes
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$1.87

Ashcroft polled 11 votes in 2025 and has taken an enormous step since. He had 30 or more disposals in 10 of his last 12 home and away games for a side that finished third. Lachie Neale has historically been Brisbane’s vote pig, but Ashcroft averaged nearly two more score involvements a game than his teammate and beat him 17-5 for goals.


To Poll a Vote

Lloyd Meek
To Poll A Vote
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$2.20

Meek is the sole recognised ruck for a side that finished fourth and won 15 games, and he plays in an incredibly even team where 16 players polled a vote in 2025, more than any other club, so the votes do get shared around. He was also named in Hawthorn’s best in the Round 5 win over the Bulldogs.

Hitouts are now on the stat sheet in front of the umpires, so at better than two to one for a single vote all season, Meek is a bet to poll.

Esava Ratugolea
To Poll A Vote
Bet Now
$2.60

There is likely only one opportunity for big Sav to poll, and it is a good one. In Port’s six point win over West Coast at Optus in Round 13, he collected the 10 coaches votes for a seven intercept mark performance and was named first in AFL.com.au’s best players ahead of Jason Horne-Francis and Zak Butters.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.

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