AFL Tips - Fremantle v Brisbane Lions - Norm Smith Medal Tips 2026

The Norm Smith Medal is always a hotly-contested award in the AFL Grand Final and a very popular betting market.

As always, Betseeker has you covered with picks for the biggest game of the year, including the Grand Final betting preview and same game multis.

Will Ashcroft is the $6.00 favourite and chasing something no player has ever done, a third straight Norm Smith Medal. Here is a look at the history of the award and the picks.

Norm Smith Medal Trends

Savvy punters can gain an edge by looking at how the Norm Smith Medal has historically been awarded. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Back the mids

Like most major AFL awards, the Norm Smith has been dominated by midfielders. Seven of the last eight winners have come from the engine room, with Bobby Hill in 2023 the only exception. Since 2000, 18 of 27 medals have gone to mids.

2. Experience matters, but less than it did

History has favoured seasoned players, with only a handful of the last 27 winners having played fewer than 100 games. Judd (2005), Johnson (2007), Pendlebury (2010), Johannisen (2016) and Hill (2023) make up that list, and Ashcroft has now added his name to it twice. Judd and Ashcroft share the mantle of youngest winner this century at 21.

3. Beware the talls

Since the medal’s introduction in 1979, just two players taller than 192cm have won, Brian Lake in 2013 and Simon Madden way back in 1985.

4. Hit the scoreboard

A goal can go a long way. The last seven winners all kicked at least one, including Ashcroft’s fourth-quarter snap that settled last year’s decider, and since 2000 only six medalists have failed to hit the scoreboard.

5. Winners get medals

It’s rare for the Norm to go to a player in the losing side. Only four times since 1979 has that happened, with Judd in 2005 the most recent. If you’re backing a team to win, that’s usually where the Norm Smith comes from.

6. Roughies can salute

Three of the last four winners started at $21 or longer, showing there’s value in the outsiders. Notable big-priced winners include Ashcroft ($21 in 2024), Hill ($101), Isaac Smith ($51), Jason Johannisen ($41) and Lake ($101). Ashcroft bucked that trend last year, saluting as a $13 chance.

With a high-scoring Grand Final predicted, and centre clearance dominance dictating most of this year’s finals, expect the goal-kicking midfielders to dominate Norm Smith voting. Given that, there’s not a lot of value jumping out, with the defenders likely to struggle. Hence the pivot to a pair of key forwards at crazy prices, flying in the face of everything the history of this award says. Every trend holds right up until it doesn’t.

Brisbane Lions Tips

Will Ashcroft

Norm Smith Medal

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$6.00

The $6.00 is incredibly short for a Norm Smith Medal market, but Ashcroft is the first player in the history of the award with the opportunity to win three straight. Narrative does matter, given this is awarded by past players and commentators, so you can expect him to get the nod if it comes down to a coin toss.

His AFL Player Rating ranks within his team across his last six finals read 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 1st and 2nd. An absurdly good finals player and still worth a ticket at the short price.

Zac Bailey

Norm Smith Medal

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$11

It has somewhat been lost that Bailey almost played one of the greatest Grand Finals of all time last year, kicking 3.6 from 23 disposals to finish third in Norm Smith voting with five votes. Had he been a touch more accurate he would have been a lock to take home the award.

Bailey wasn’t great last week but kicked 3.3 the week prior against Adelaide. He is a prototypical Norm Smith winner as a goal-kicking midfielder and will be right in the votes if he hits the scoreboard.

Eric Hipwood

Norm Smith Medal

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$151

Hipwood is a massive price for a reason, but there are a couple of reasons why he’s worth a dollar or two. With Logan Morris playing as Brisbane’s deepest forward, Alex Pearce should go to him, leaving Hipwood against Fremantle’s other key defenders, who have been very gettable. He has also looked really strong this finals series. Key forwards almost never dominate Grand Finals and he’d probably need to kick five or six to win it, but he’s not the worst $151 shot ever.

Fremantle Dockers Tips

Hayden Young

Norm Smith Medal

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$15

Young ticks all the boxes for a Norm Smith Medal win and sits second for the Dockers in coaches votes these finals, after picking up eight last week. Prepared to take him on over Luke Jackson, given Jackson’s ordinary recent record against the Lions and the poor history of ruckmen in Grand Finals, while Caleb Serong is likely to get attention from Josh Dunkley.

Shai Bolton

Norm Smith Medal

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$15

Bolton is another perfect Norm candidate and has been in Fremantle’s top four rated players in four of his last five games. He has kicked 1.2 and 2.2 in his last two against the Lions and has received coaches votes in each of his last two games.

Patrick Voss

Norm Smith Medal

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$41

Don’t call me crazy just yet. Voss has a ridiculous record at the MCG, with returns of four, five and six goals from three games at the home of footy. Like Hipwood, there are a million reasons why the Prancing Pony won’t win a Norm, but if he can do a similar defensive job on Harris Andrews to the one he did on James Sicily in the Qualifying Final, plus hit the scoreboard, he’s a chance to poll.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.