Hawthorn host Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday twilight, with the Hawks chasing a first Grand Final since 2015 and the Lions a third straight flag.
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Best Bet
Just can’t back against the Lions in a prelim at the MCG.
The question around Brisbane all year has been motivation. They tend to pick and choose when they give absolute effort, which isn’t a surprise for a team that has won the last two flags.
That was evident against Sydney in the qualifying final, where even Chris Fagan called out that they had taken the suspension hit Swans lightly. There shouldn’t be any question around motivation in a preliminary final.
The key numbers favour Brisbane here. They are 8-2 in their last 10 at the MCG with seven covers, 8-2 against the line against top six teams at the MCG, and 8-2 against the line in their last 10 finals.
Hawthorn blew away Freo in the qualifying final in Perth, but as mentioned in the other preliminary final preview, there are real concerns around the Dockers’ form, which takes some gloss off that win.
The Hawks’ own record against the best this year isn’t great either, at 5-5-2 head to head and 3-9 against the line against top eight teams.
Brisbane have the wood over Hawthorn recently, winning and covering in the last three. The Round 22 game at the Gabba was a 67 point rout, with the Lions piling on 125 points.
Fagan’s team have scary scoring power. From their last 13 games they have scored 90 or more in 11 of them. Even in the disappointing qualifying final loss to Sydney, they piled on 88.
On a perfect day weather wise at the MCG, with zero chance of rain and a top of 24, Hawthorn are going to have to beat Brisbane in a shootout. From their last 10 games against top six teams the Hawks have averaged just 82.5 points, ranked 10th. It’s hard to see them having the firepower to go with the two time champs.
The Noah Answerth absence will help Nick Watson, however, who has kicked just one career goal against the Lions. There are no changes for either team.
As long as the Lions turn up, which they should given the stakes, then they look mighty hard to beat.
Same Game Multi
The over is a great bet, with eight of Brisbane’s last nine finals going over. The last three have all cleared 197 points.
Will Ashcroft’s finals record is brilliant and he has had 30 or more in 10 of his last 12 games.
Half backs have been a good bet against the Hawks all year, so take Zorko for 25. He has hit this mark in 10 straight finals.
Value Bets
Hipwood has looked terrific in the last few games, kicking two or more in four of his last five. Josh Battle and Tom Barrass are likely to be set for Logan Morris and Oscar Allen, which could give Eric a good match up against an undersized James Sicily.
Lohmann has been inconsistent lately, but he did the damage against the Hawks in Round 22, booting five. He is also capable of a big game at the MCG, having kicked four in the 2024 Grand Final.
The Lions are savage when they are switched on, with the average margin in their last 10 wins sitting at 50 points. These teams rarely play close games either. From the last 19 head to head meetings, only four have been decided by fewer than 20 points. If either team gets on top early then this could get ugly.
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