Tennis Tips - Wimbledon Day 5 Tips

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t had too many issues early in her Wimbledon run, but she could face a massive third-round test against giant killer Jelena Ostapenko.

Best Bet

Rinderkech vs Djokovic Over 33.5

Total Games

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$1.83

I think the Frenchman can trouble Djokovic in this, even after Novak’s demolition of Stefanos Tsitstipas in the second-round.

Arthur Rinderknech has played plenty of tennis against top-10 opposition over the last 12 months, and although he has a 3-6 record, all nine of those matches went overs.

As for Djokovic, in his last 12 completed matches against opposition ranked 5 to 70, nine of those have gone over the total games including six of the last seven.

Next Best

Iva Jovic -3.5

Game Handicap

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$2.00

Iva Jovic has started the tournament on fire, with the third best serve and return percentage in the draw just behind Bencic and Muchova.

Alexandrova has struggled against quality opposition in 2026, with a 4-8 record against the top-40 this year, and although the Russian did beat Jovic at the 2024 US Open, the American was just 16 at the time ranked outside the top-300 with the match going the distance.

Jovic’s record against the top-40 is much more impressive at 8-9 this year, and has won five of her last seven against that calibre of opposition.

Pegula vs Bouzas Maneiro Over 19.5

Total Games

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$1.83

Jessica Pegula has advanced to the third round without dropping a set, but the American has started slowly resulting in both of her opening matches going over the total games line.

She faces Jessica Bouzas Maniero in this, who is a heavy hitter and been solid on grass over the last 12 months, going 8-5 while covering the game handicap in 70% of those matches, including a Round of 16 appearance last year.

10 of Pegula’s last 13 matches on grass have gone over the total games, including her last five leading into this match. Don’t think this will be as regulation as what the odds suggest.

Value Bet

Sabalenka vs Ostapenko Over 2.5

Total Sets

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$2.50

The gun-slinging Latvian has started this Wimbledon strong, and Jelena Ostapenko is a genuine giant killer.

As a top-50 player in the world, Ostapenko is 14-16 against top-5 opposition, including winning six of her last nine against that bracket – this includes three wins over Swiatek and a win over her third-round opponent, Sabalenka.

Over the last 12 months, Ostapenka’s serve and return percentage on grass sits at 111 – Sabalenka on the other hand, despite a 11-3 record, is just at 104. I think this is genuinely dangerous for the world number one, with Ostapenko likely to control the rally in this.

Multi

Davidovich-Fokina (M) / Auger Aliassime (M) / Bencic (W) / Jovic (W) / Osaka (W) = $3.60

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Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.