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It’s win or go home for four teams on Thursday, and there’s a couple of role players that we expect to stand up for their teams with extended minutes.
Best Bet
Hornets @ Hawks (9:00am)
Deandre Hunter Over 13.5 Points ($1.76)
Hard to see the Charlotte Hornets allowing Trae Young to do whatever he likes in this playing out of the mid pick and roll and going downhill against Mason Plumlee. The Hornets have done relatively well against Trae this season keeping him to an average of 20.8 points per game and with his line set at 31.5 points it’s something we’re avoiding.
Both the Hornets and Hawks are capable of putting up huge totals, which means the Hawks need a secondary scorer alongside Trae – enter Deandre Hunter. The Atlanta Forward has played well in both games against the Hornets this season averaging 20.5 points.
Hunter enters the play-in game a bit hot-and-cold averaging 13.2 points covering the line of 13.5 in five of his last nine games. But his average is indicative of the fluctuation of minutes due to the number of late season blowouts. Per 36 minutes, Hunter averages 16.5 points per game and with this being a ‘win or go home’ game for the Hawks, expect Hunter to play somewhere closer to that 36-minute mark.
If the Hornets can once again make Trae a passer – he averages 10.8 assists against Charlotte this season, expect Deandre Hunter to be the beneficiary of that. $4.50 for 20+ points the value.
Same Game Multi
Hawks H2H
Deandre Hunter Over 13.5 Points
Trae Young 10+ Assists
$3.10
Next Best
Spurs @ Pelicans (11:30am)
Jakob Poeltl Over 8.5 Rebounds ($1.74)
The Spurs’ big man’s output has been slightly down of late, but don’t let that fool you with Coach Pop getting minutes into Zach Collins. In a ‘win or go home’ match-up, we should see Jakob Poeltl’s minutes jump up again into the low 30s.
Despite only averaging 28 minutes per game from his last 14 dating back to March 9th, Poeltl still averages 10.3 rebounds per game over this period. Over this timeframe Poeltl is ranked 11th in the NBA in rebounds per 36 minutes with 13.2, only 1.3 rebounds behind New Orleans Centre Jonas Valanciunas, who’s line is set 4 rebounds greater than Poeltl’s for this play-in match.
The Austrian has covered 8.5 rebounds in three of his last four games against the Pelicans, averaging 10.5 rebounds against New Orleans for the season, and from Poeltl’s last 14 games, he’s recorded 9+ in nine of them.
Poeltl played 32+ minutes in 22 games this season in which he averaged 10.4 rebounds and posted double-digit rebounds in 16 of those games. If he can avoid foul trouble we should see 32+ minutes from Poeltl posting over 8.5 rebounds, with a double-double paying $2.80.
Same Game Multi
CJ McCollum 25+ Points
Jonas Valanciunas 15+ Points
Jakob Poeltl 8+ Rebounds
$3.40
Multi
Atlanta H2H / Hunter over 13.5pts / Poeltl 8+ rebounds ($3.50)
