Collingwood and Brisbane meet at the MCG on Friday night for the 10th time in four seasons, with third spot and a qualifying final against the Swans on the line for the Lions.
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Best Bet
All on the line for Brisbane, but the Pies are all in too and not resting.
The Lions have won and covered in four straight against top six teams, all of those by 22 points or more.
They can take a big step toward a third straight premiership here. A big enough win locks in third and a meeting with the crisis-hit Swans, though they also need to hold their percentage buffer over fourth placed Hawthorn.
The Pies have declined to rest players ahead of a wildcard berth, with a win or loss both likely to result in an MCG final. They are 7-1-1 in their last nine games and have covered the line in four of their last five.
Brisbane have long been a poor bet as favourites, particularly at the MCG. The underdog has covered the line in 13 of 14 of their games at the home of footy, and they have failed to cover in five straight when they have been favourites there.
The Lions can seem unmotivated by meaningless games, but recent performances against top teams and in finals suggest they know when they need to turn up.
This is one of those instances, so back the Lions to be too strong, although Collingwood should put up a reasonable fight.
Same Game Multi
The Pies have been the best opponent for half backs all year, so Zorko should pig out here. He has averaged 27.2 in his last five against Collingwood, all of them clearing 25.
Collingwood are also vulnerable against outside mids, so take Levi Ashcroft for 20. He has had 27 and 26 in his last two.
The Pies are missing Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard, so the Brisbane small and medium forwards could run wild. Lohmann was arguably the most in form general forward in the competition until last week’s goalless game, having kicked 14 in the previous four.
Value Bet
Lohmann has kicked four in three of his last seven games and kicked four last time out against the Pies. He has hit four or more five times this year, and with Collingwood looking very thin for small and medium defenders he could have a monster game.
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