Melbourne host the Western Bulldogs at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in the game with perhaps the most riding on it this round, with the Demons able to finish anywhere from third to seventh.
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Best Bet
The Dees have more to play for here and have to be bet at the MCG.
Their form at the venue is impossible to ignore. Melbourne are 10-1 both head to head and against the line at the MCG this season, most recently knocking off minor premier Fremantle for just their third loss of 2026.
Melbourne can finish as high as third if results fall their way, but as low as seventh if they lose. The Dogs are likely to get an MCG wildcard game no matter what happens, although there is a slight risk of a trip to Adelaide.
The Dogs are still missing Tim English, which is almost a terminal out against Max Gawn. They have cycled Rory Lobb, Lachie Smith, Louis Emmett and Jordan Croft through the ruck trying to cover him recently, although it looks like Lobb will get the job here.
They do get some defensive strength back in Bailey Dale, Connor Budarick and Ryan Gardner, plus Bontempelli off the rest. The Dees lose van Rooyen to suspension, who would have been handy against the average Dogs key backs.
The head to head is a very even split at 5-5 from the last 10. The Dogs have won the last three, but the last two by just six and three points.
Back the Dees to do enough to lock in a top six spot and a week off.
Same Game Multi
The Dees only play one way and it’s aggressive. The over is 8-3 in their MCG games this year and 8-2 in the last 10 between these teams.
Gawn will likely go nuts here, averaging 22 touches from his last five against the Dogs.
Harry Petty has kicked two or more in seven straight games.
Value Bet
Expecting a big Max Gawn performance here with so much on the line for the Dees. Not much value in his disposals, but without Tim English expect him to press forward and challenge Rory Lobb’s tank. The Dees are also without van Rooyen so are shorter than usual in attack. Gawn has kicked a goal in three straight against the Dogs and two or more in two of his last four at the MCG. Worth a throw at the price.
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