The Brownlow is always a fantastic betting event and some value can always be found prior to the season commencing. Here are our top picks, lays and roughies for ‘Charlie’ in 2025. Be sure to check out our season previews and Coleman Medal picks in the coming days too.
Winner
We’re big on the Pies in 2025 in our season preview, which means more opportunities for their young star to rack up votes. Daicos finished seven votes behind Cripps in last year’s count, but after the Carlton skipper’s absurd 45-vote tally, some regression from the reigning winner is likely. Collingwood faces a tough opening six weeks, with six straight games against 2024 finalists, so there’s no rush to jump in at the current price—but he remains the clear top pick.
Next Best
Serong finished fourth last year with 28 votes – a tally that would have won five Brownlows in the last 15 years – despite Freo winning just 12 games. If you believe the Freo hype, Serong should have even more opportunities to poll this season. After a tough Round 1 trip to Geelong, Fremantle only play two 2024 top 8 teams in their next eight games so his price could crash in. He’s worth backing early.
A player who is just built to win a Brownlow. Green finished fifth last season, and despite a slight statistical dip from 2023, he lifted his vote tally from 16 to 27. At just 24, he still has room to improve, and if the Giants push for a top-four finish again, he’ll be right in the mix on Brownlow night.
Lay
The third favourite at $13 won’t be winning the Brownlow in 2025. After a red-hot start last season, Heeney fell off dramatically, polling just seven votes after Round 10. The last five Grand Final teams that lost by 40+ points failed to finish in the top four the following year, so expect fewer wins for the Swans – and fewer votes for Heeney.
We need to pump the brakes on the Ashcroft hype despite his fantastic Grand Final performance. The young mid has polled just ten votes across his short career and plays alongside one of the great vote pigs in Lachie Neale. He might win a Brownlow one day, but it’s not going to be this year.
Roughies
Touted as a future Brownlow winner since polling a perfect nine votes in his first three games and is clearly still an umpire’s pet after 25 votes last year in a team that finished 13th. Even more remarkably, the Suns didn’t rate his season that highly, with the former No.1 pick finishing fifth in their B&F. If the Suns rise in 2025, Rowell will be right in the Brownlow mix.
It’s highly unlikely that he will be winning a Brownlow in 2025 but in the last 12 rounds last year, LDU had the equal third most votes with 18 – in a team that won two games. If somehow North can get to eight or more wins this year then he could be a shock contender.
