AFL Tips – Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants – Round 22 2022

With their September hopes on the line, the Bulldogs enter this clash at Marvel Stadium with arch rivals GWS desperately in need of a win.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -32.5

This is a big line but one the Dogs should cover at home.

Luke Beveridge’s team have been terribly inconsistent all year but their form at Marvel has remained strong, winning and covering the start in seven of their nine games there this year with an average winning margin of 34 points.

They’ve also been very good against bad opposition, winning six of eight against bottom eight teams with the fourth-ranked percentage of 142. This has included big margins over West Coast (101 points), North (68), Hawthorn (42) and Essendon (32).

The Giants have been horrid at backing up good performances over the last two seasons, clearing the line in just five of their last 17 following a win. While Mark McVeigh’s brutal criticism may have stung them into action last week, there is little confidence it will carry over for another week, such is the lack of backbone they’ve displayed all year.

But the real kicker for GWS is the loss of Toby Greene with a thumb injury. Over the last four years, they have only covered in 5 of 19 games without their star forward against 34 of 65 overall.

Last time these two teams met, just eight weeks ago, Greene kicked seven goals, almost single-handedly preventing a blowout. Without him, it’s hard to see the Giants getting close to the Bulldogs, especially with so much on the line for the home team.

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Same Game Multi

Western Bulldogs 40+, C.Weightman & A.Naughton 2+ goals, E.Richards 20+ disposals

Confidence levels are high in the Bulldogs here so we’ll take 40+ for some extra value.

Cody Weightman has kicked eight goals in his last three games while Aaron Naughton has kicked 2+ in six of his last seven.

Ed Richards has been one of the Dogs’ best contributors in recent weeks. He’s had 20+ in five straight games.

Value Bet

Western Bulldogs 60+
Western Bulldogs 73+

While the Giants were good against a similarly inconsistent Essendon last week, we know they are a horrible bet after a win. They’d also lost their previous four games by an average of 51 points, kicking just 45 points on average themselves with Toby Greene in the team.

The Bulldogs have put some big margins on bad teams this year and are more than capable of doing it again here.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.