AFL Tips – Sydney v Western Bulldogs – Round 17 2022

Swans vs Bulldogs - Expert AFL Tips

The 2016 Grand Finalists have had a one sided rivalry ever since.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs (+8.5)

The Dogs love playing the Swans and can build on their outstanding record in the harbour city.

The Swans have only covered two of their last nine against the Dogs, and only won three of their last nine. This included an 11 point defeat (it should have been more, the Dogs kicked atrociously) in Round 3 this year.

Both of these teams are defined by their inconsistency, but the area where the Dogs are nearly always strong is in clearance and contested ball and this advantage has proved decisive when playing Sydney.

The Dogs are the top ranked team in the league for clearance differential, even ahead of the much improved Blues. They are ranked third for contested possession differential and that is the key barometer for how the Swans perform. If you beat the Swans in contested footy, you almost always beat them on the scoreboard, as the Bombers showed once again last week.

One area of weakness where the Dogs are exploited is in the key defensive stocks, but with Logan McDonald out of form and Sam Reid not exactly scaring teams, it will take a big game from Buddy Franklin for the Swans to score enough to win.

The Dogs are a terrific play at the line and an upset is within their grasp as well.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Bulldogs +8.5, T. Liberatore 25+ Disposals, T. English 20+ Disposals, R. West 1+ Goal

Both teams concede disposals at a low rate so be careful about including too many of these. Nonetheless Libba is in great ball winning form at present and he just goes and gets it himself, plus Tim English has had no less than 20 in every game this season.

Value Bet

2+ Goals
Rhylee West
3+ Goals
Rhylee West

West is producing the returns of an elite small forward and still isn’t being priced like it. His last five weeks have produced 2,0 (v Geelong),3,2 and 2. Happy to play him for two again and a spec bet on a three bagger is worth a bet as well.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.