The Saints have won five on the bounce and should have no trouble with Port up in Cairns on Saturday night.
Best Bet
St Kilda -9.5 ($1.90)
This line looks a gift from the bookies. It is completely unrepresentative of where these teams are at in 2022.
St Kilda are playing a terrific brand of footy that has them on track to return to September action. Their pressure is elite and a number of players have taken significant steps forward, in particular Jack Higgins, Jack Sinclair and Max King. At 5-1 with a percentage of 131, it’s time to recognise the Saints as a genuine Top 4 contender in season 2022.
The same cannot be said for Port. They recorded their first win of the year last week over a disjointed West Coast side after losses to Hawthorn, Adelaide, Melbourne and Carlton. Granted that win came by 84 points, but that’s not enough to warrant a 9.5 point line against one of the AFL’s most improved sides in St Kilda given their prior form.
The Saints have covered the line in five of six games this year and should have no trouble here against the Power.
Same Game Multi
St Kilda -9.5 / Under 153.5 Points / J.Higgins 2+ Goals ($3.50)
Cazaly’s Stadium has proven to be a great venue to low scoring footy in recent years with games typically played at night in warm, humid conditions. The average total of the last six games at the venue is just 124.8 points, once normalised for shorter 2020 matches.
St Kilda get a lot of goals from Max King and Tim Membrey and Port the same via Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson, especially in recent weeks. These talls will struggle to take grabs in slippery conditions in Cairns, which should only help the total remain low.
Value Bet
Jack Higgins 4+ Goals ($5.20)
More than happy to ride the Jack Higgins heater this week. The former Tiger has kicked 4.3 and 5.2 in his last two games to go with 4.2 back in Round 2 and 0.4 in Round 1. He is white hot at present and can absolutely kick another bag this weekend in conditions which will favour small forwards.
Connor Rozee 30+ Disposals ($5.75)
Connor Rozee has been the main beneficiary of Ken Hinkley throwing the magnets around in order to get some spark out of his Port team. Rozee had attended 73% of centre bounces last week, up from 33% the week prior, and had 31 touches as a result. He’s tremendous value for 25+ again this week for your same game multis and a massive price for 30+.
