Round 13 kicks off on Thursday night with a crucial clash for both Richmond and Port Adelaide’s September hopes.
Best Bet
The total looks too low here.
Richmond have been a great overs bet all year. Their games have cleared the total in 8 of 11 games and have averaged 181 points.
The low total looks an overreaction to Port Adelaide games averaging just 145 points this year, but there have been some extenuating circumstances around a few of those.
Last week’s game was played in torrential rain and totalled just 116 points. Round 7’s game against St Kilda was a farce in humid Cairns and totalled 85 points. In Round 4, Port inexplicably didn’t kick a goal in the first half at home against Melbourne.
Outside of those games, Power games have gone over in five of eight. They’ve also kicked 115 points against North, 86 against the Dogs, 117 against the Eagles and 91 against Carlton.
Port can certainly score and have done so more consistently since their 0-5 start to the year.
This is the fourth lowest total of the 26 games played at the MCG this year and is a goal or two short of where it should be.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
Trent Cotchin has had 20+ disposals in six straight games and is averaging 25.5 over the last month.
Charlie Dixon kicked two in his return game last week and is way over the odds for goals here. Getting $3.00+ for three or more goals looks very appealing as a side bet.
Big Ivan Soldo has kicked at least a goal in four of his last five games and should challenge Port’s undersized backline.
Value Bet
Think Port are decent value this week. They’re the AFL’s second best travelling team over the last decade, covering at 58% interstate and in five of their last six as outsiders.
The two teams have similar form lines, having won four of their last five including comfortable wins over Essendon and West Coast. Port have knocked off the Saints and Dogs and lost to the Cats while Richmond have beaten the Pies and Hawks but lost to the Swans by a kick last week.
Tom Lynch’s absence is the key factor in this game. His height could have seriously challenged Port’s undersized backline. Without him, the Power look a good bet with the start.
Off the stick in to the overs at $5.50 appeals too.
