Sydney are set to turn off the Power.
Best Bet
Based on current form Sydney are clearly the better side and the home ground advantage won’t be enough for Port Adelaide, especially with Robbie Gray and Travis Boak missing.
The Swans have been an excellent road side in 2022, winning four from six and covering the same amount. They are coming off their best away performance of the season, defeating Melbourne at the MCG prior to a bye.
Where the Swans have struggled this year is against some of the better contested possession sides. In all four of their losses – to the Blues, Suns, Dogs and Lions – they have lost the contested possession count.
How well equipped are Port to win this metric? Not very. The Power rank 13th for contested possession differential, worse than the 11th placed Swans.
The Power have only covered two from six and won three from six at Adelaide Oval this year. This will be only the third time in the last two years that the Power have started outsiders at their home ground, but they lost both games and failed to cover in both.
Port Adelaide has also struggled against good teams this season. They are 1-5 against sides ranked 10th or above on the ladder.
Sydney are the better team and should be clearly favoured.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
Sydney concede disposals at the lowest rate in the league so be careful about including Port players. Buddy has bagged four in his last three games against the Power (who still have injury concerns down back) while Marshall has been a rare bright spot in a dysfunctional Port forward line.
Value Bet
Lance Franklin kicked five in his last game and no doubt will have appreciated a couple of weeks off to get his body right. Expect ‘Bud’ to be back to his brilliant best and $4 for most snags seems a very fair price.
