AFL Tips – North Melbourne v Sydney – Round 21 2022

Sydney will be looking for a percentage-boosting win against last-placed North Melbourne as the race for top four spots heats up.

Best Bet

North Melbourne +48.5

The Swans appear to be peaking as September approaches, winning their last four by an average of 44 points, but this is a big line and one the Kangaroos can cover given the visitors’ poor record at Marvel.

Sydney have only one cover and two wins from their last six visits to this venue. Over the last five seasons they’ve covered in 5 of 15 here. They’ve also only cleared the line in one of their last five overall when favoured by more than six goals.

Their opponents have been somewhat less embarrassing over the last month. North covered the start in Rounds 17 and 18 and while they have lost their last two by 46 and 48 points, they were more competitive than the result indicated. Champion Data’s expected scoring only had them losing these games by 7 and 13 points respectively.

North’s best performance in the first half of the year came against Sydney at the SCG in Round 4, only going down by 11 points after leading at the final change. With a host of players available to play after leaving covid protocols, they should keep this within eight goals.

Get on Betseeker Bingo with TopSport. If two or more listed players kick the first goal this round, you win! There are chances to win across all nine games.

Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +48.5, T.Papley & I.Heeney 2+ goals, J.Anderson 20+ disposals

Tom Papley is in brilliant form, kicking 2+ in each of his last four games while Isaac Heeney has done the same in six of his last seven.

North inside mid Jed Anderson has had 20+ touches in four straight games and had 19 in each of the two games prior to that.

Value Bet

North Melbourne
First Half Winner

Sydney are vulnerable early in games, only winning 10 of 19 first halves this year with a percentage of 108 (ranked 8th). By contrast, they are 17-2 in second halves with a percentage of 151 (1st).

On 2022 form, there is value taking on the Bloods to start slow and finish strong.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.