The Roos are in all sorts but their terrific record in Tassie can keep this one within six goals on Saturday.
Best Bet
North Melbourne +34.5 ($1.90)
Despite North being a terrible side for some time, they are consistently a great bet in their adopted home. They have covered the start in 20 of 28 games at Blundstone and in five of their last six.
The Roos have been on the back page for all the wrong reasons this week so a response from their leaders should be expected. After their Round 3 belting from Brisbane and the now infamous ‘spray’, David Noble’s team nearly rolled the Swans in Sydney – by far their best performance of the year – the following week.
After starting the year 0-5, some pundits are declaring Port back on track after three straight wins, but the quality of each of these wins has to be questioned. Smashing the Eagles is par for the course in 2022, their win over an inaccurate St Kilda by a single point came in diabolical conditions in Cairns while the injury-smashed Dogs were out on their feet last week, finishing with only one fit player on the bench.
Until the Power can perform consistently against better quality opponents, they shouldn’t be favoured by six goals against anyone, even the lowly Kangas.
The chances of a blowout win for the visitors will only be made harder by a wet forecast for Hobart on Saturday, with 5-10mm of rain predicted.
Back the Roos to respond and keep this one respectable.
Same Game Multi
Port Adelaide 1-39pts / Jy Simpkin 25+ Disposals / Nick Larkey 2+ Goals ($5.50)
It’s almost impossible to see North winning this so we’ll take a little extra cream here with the 1-39 Port margin.
There’s not a lot of consistency in Port’s midfielders or forwards this year so we’ll look to the Roos for player props.
Jy Simpkin has a terrific record at Blundstone, clearing 25 touches in five of his last six games at the venue. As their leading inside mid and vice captain, expect him to stand up this week.
Nick Larkey has kicked 2+ goals in 5/7 games this year and is good value this week for a few given the big line.
Value Bet
North Melbourne H2H – First Quarter ($3.00) / First Half ($3.75)
The Roos first halves have been much better than their second in 2022. They’ve won 3/9 first quarters and 4/9 second quarters, while they’ve only won one third quarter and one last quarter. Their young team just doesn’t have the legs to remain competitive for entire matches.
For those with quick fingers, the wind can play havoc in Hobart, so watching the coin toss and betting accordingly can be a strong angle. The bureau is forecasting up to 20km/h winds toward the northern end of the ground (left of screen) for Saturday. If North win the toss, a fast start for the home team becomes even more likely.
