Geelong host Richmond at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night to close out their home and away season, with the Cats still able to climb as high as fourth and the Tigers playing out a year that got away from them long ago.
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Best Bet
Geelong still have slim top four hopes and won’t take the foot off the throat here.
The Cats have won six of their last seven against Richmond, five of them by 30 points or more. The last meeting in Geelong was a 72 point win.
The Tigers have lost their last seven visits to GMHBA Stadium, a run stretching back more than 20 years.
Richmond continue to be awful. Of their last 12 losses, only two have come by fewer than 30 points, and three of the last four have been by 49 or more.
The scoring gap is hard to ignore. Geelong have averaged 111.6 points across their last five games, while the Tigers have managed just 56.6 and have been held under 60 in four of those.
The key factor is the final round, with blowouts increasing in games involving eliminated teams. Margins are up 11 points in the last round of the season in those games.
The Cats dealt out a 67 point belting of Essendon two weeks ago at the Cattery, and a similar result is expected here.
Same Game Multi
Shannon Neale is averaging three goals a game from his last four, while Ollie Henry failed to kick two goals last week for the first time in five weeks and should bounce back.
Bailey Smith has had 30 or more in five straight against bottom four teams.
Value Bet
Mannagh kicked three last week against North Melbourne and will get plenty of opportunities here in what could be a massive blowout. He is up to 32 goals for 2026, already past his tally from last season, and will be keen to hit the finals in top form.
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