Melbourne cannot be backed as favourites in present form.
Best Bet
The wheels have fallen off Melbourne’s premiership defence and it is doubtful that a nine day break will be enough to restore their fortunes.
The Demons scoring power was never the basis of their success but it has fallen away dramatically in the last three weeks. Scores of 56, 61 and 56 show that their offensive gameplan has been worked out.
They are too predictable and one dimensional. No team goes long down the line more. No team switches the ball less. Goodwin will need to alter this strategy, especially with the absence of Max Gawn, but it is a tough ask to do so in the space of nine days.
Brisbane’s problems are mostly defensive. But a forward line headed by Ben Brown and Sam Weideman scares no one. Bayley Fritsch’s effectiveness has been limited by the Dees awful ball movement.
Much will likely be made in the lead up of the fact that Brisbane hasn’t won at the MCG since 2014. But they have haven’t played at the home of football since Round 1, 2020 and their record against the spread at the ‘G is 50% over the last decade.
The Lions are well equipped to go head to head with the Dees midfield brigade and their superior efficiency inside forward 50 should prove decisive.
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Same Game Multi
Charlie bagged five of the Lions nine goals when these sides met in last year’s qualifying final. The Dees have been scored against heavily by small forwards in recent weeks, with Jamie Elliott and Lachie Schulz – lesser players than Cameron – both bagging three.
Brisbane games are typically high scoring but on the MCG – where the last eight games have all gone under the total – and against a team which can, for all their offensive struggles, still defend well (especially with Steven May back), the number here seems too high even though it has already come down a couple of points.
Value Bet
Steven May will be going straight to Joe Daniher so that will make life tough for him. It is hard to have any faith in the Dees forwards (Fritsch aside) in present form. Charlie Cameron looks primed for another big game against the Dees.
