Port have improved in the last month and are strong where Geelong looks vulnerable.
Best Bet
Geelong have been a poor betting proposition at home in the last two years and Port look excellent value this week at the line.
The Cats major flaw this season is in contested footy. Traditionally a strength of this team, they have been poor in the middle but saved by being particularly efficient inside 50.
While Port Adelaide were awful to start the season, they have improved in recent weeks off the back of improved play from their midfield group. They have won the contested possession count by 9.8 per game in the last month, ranked fourth in the league, having been ranked 15th in the competition for contested ball in the first five rounds.
This game will likely come down to whether the Power can keep the Cats gun forwards in check. Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins have Geelong ranked number 1 for marks inside 50, averaging 15.6 per game – three more than any other side.
With something close to a full lineup, expect Port to make this a close game.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
Ten of the last eleven games between these two sides have gone under the number and they have both been solid defensively of late, only conceding more than 70 once in the last four months. Wines has an excellent record against the Cats while Motlop has been in consistent goal scoring form this season.
Value Bet
The small men did the damage for Port against the Cats last year. Connor Rozee bagged five in round 13, and Orazio Fantasia kicked four in the Qualifying Final. Backing a couple of the Port small forwards to get amongst it at big prices looks a sound strategy.
