Geelong are set to punish a Collingwood side that has been at least as lucky as it has been good on Saturday afternoon at the MCG.
Best Bet
The Magpies have ridden their luck to an extraordinary degree during the regular season but their run will come to a sudden end against a hardened, professional Geelong outfit.
Much will be made of Geelong’s recent record in finals – especially the first week where they boast a 1-8 record in the last nine years – but it is important to remember that they have never dominated a season in that time like they have 2022.
Since round 10, Geelong are 13-0, with an average margin of nearly 40 points. They are a remarkable 11-2 against the line, including the last nine in a row. The betting markets have not caught up to how dominant the Cats are.
Getting back to the MCG will hold no fears for the Cats either. They are 4-1 head to head and against the number this year.
Collingwood has a remarkable record of coming back from big deficits this year, and defying all traditional measures of success like clearances, inside 50s and so on. That is how they have snuck into the top 4 with a worse percentage than 11th placed Port Adelaide.
The Pies have had 1475 clangers against this season and the gap between them and second is the same as the gap between 2nd and 9th. It’s difficult to quantify luck, but they have had more than their fair share.
That won’t happen against a side that has sufficient scoring power to take a game away within ten minutes, like has happened so often in the last half of the season.
Expect Geelong to win and win big.
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Same Game Multi
The Cats should have plenty of goals to be shared and backing their All Australian trio, Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle for two or more looks a viable play.
Isaac Smith has been hitting the scoreboard consistently of late with goals in his last four matches, including three against the Saints.
Value Bet
It’s something of a cliche but percentage truly is a better indicator of performance than win/loss. If we think of this in terms of the best side playing perhaps the ninth or tenth best, some of the more exotic margins become highly realistic.
