AFL Tips – Geelong v Brisbane – Round 4 2022

Expect another high scoring clash at Geelong’s home ground.

Best Bet

Over 168.5 Total Points ($1.90)

Cats games at GMHBA have gone over the number 75% of the time in the last three years and that trend can continue in what should be a terrific round 4 clash.

Both teams have plenty of offensive firepower, averaging over 100 points each this season.

Brisbane’s defence has hardly been tested given they have played Port, Essendon and North, but Geelong’s strength in generating scores from forward half intercepts and marking threats inside 50 provide a significant test for the Lions backline. 

A real concern for Cats coach Chris Scott is the pressure his team is putting on the opposition. Geelong ranks last for pressure factor so far this year at 170. 

If they allow the Lions midfield to dominate like the Pies did for the first three quarters last week – Collingwood won the contested possession count by 37 up to three quarter time – the Lions will score at will. 

The Cats strength is the ability to score heavily when they do get the footy inside their forward 50, like in the final quarter last week against the Pies when they piled on seven goals.

Trying to predict the outcome looks extremely difficult, but going over the total looks much more likely than not.

Same Game Multi

Over 168.5 / T. Hawkins 2+ Goals / L. Neale 30+, J.Lyons 25+ Disposals ($5.25)

Geelong concede possessions at an extremely high rate, allowing more than 8% more than the league average, so backing the Lions ball winners to get plenty of it makes sense. Hawkins has eight goals from three rounds and boasts an excellent record against the Lions at this ground.

Value Bet

Tom Hawkins 4+ Goals ($4.50)

Hawkins looks a good price to kick four or more which he did seven times last season, with $10 for five having some appeal as well.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.