An enticing end to Round 12 will be decided by who can get the game on their terms.
Best Bet
This is a very interesting total and one we think is too high.
Brisbane play in the highest scoring games in 2022, averaging 183.3 points per game. Freo play in the lowest scoring games at just 139.8 points per game.
Brisbane betting totals have averaged 168.5 over the last six weeks. Fremantle betting totals have averaged 150.
A total of 162 in this game suggests the bookies expect this to edge higher than in average Fremantle games this year. We don’t think that will happen.
Remarkably, the Lions are yet to play a top three defensive team through 11 rounds. They haven’t faced Fremantle, Melbourne or St Kilda.
They have played the fourth and fifth ranked defensive teams and in both games their scoring was well down, recording 80 points against Port and 70 against Geelong – their two lowest scores of the season and the only two times they’ve failed to score at least 97 points.
Fremantle are having a remarkable defensive season, only conceding 60 points per game on average. The highest score they’ve conceded is 82.
Brisbane are completely unproven against elite defensive teams and have shown they are vulnerable against merely above average defensive teams.
As we also know, backing the unders in Fremantle games at Optus is one of the best bets in footy, hitting at 65% overall and in each of the Dockers’ last seven games at the venue.
Expect Freo to turn this into a grind and the total to fall well short.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
Pretty keen to back the Dockers if they can contain Brisbane’s scoring power. The Lions have had an ordinary couple of weeks, losing to Hawthorn in Tasmania and only getting past GWS by 14 points.
Freo were incredible last week, ending Melbourne’s nearly year-long unbeaten streak after only conceding one goal from 22 inside 50s in the second half. Confidence levels will be high returning home this weekend to face another top flag contender.
Jordan Clark has recorded 20+ touches in seven straight games and is the best value for disposals this week.
Value Bet
For all the reasons stated above, the Lions look great value for a low score this week. We’ll certainly be on under 60.5 at $4.90 as well.
