A seemingly resurgent Essendon are at home to Gold Coast to close out AFL Round 18. I’m not ready to jump on the Bomber bandwagon.
Best Bet
Gold Coast have been a far more consistent team than Essendon all year and should run out comfortable winners at Marvel.
The Suns have been reliable all season, covering the spread in 11 of 16 games. Essendon have not, covering in just five games.
Stewart Dew’s team will simply be too tough for Essendon around the pill. The Suns are ranked second for clearances and seventh for contested ball. Essendon are 17th and 14th in these measures. Expect Miller, Anderson, Swallow, Rowell and co. to have a day out.
Gold Coast’s miraculous win over Richmond last week was proceeded by two losses by less than a kick to Collingwood and Port Adelaide in Adelaide. If luck had gone their way, they could be riding a six-match winning streak entering this fixture.
Essendon in the last month beat a covid-ravaged Brisbane last week and picked up wins over two of the AFL’s least consistent teams in St Kilda and Sydney. Sandwiched in between was a loss to 17th-placed West Coast. Forgive me for not getting too carried away with their apparent improvement in form.
Very keen on the Suns at nearly pick’em odds to get the win and and keep their finals hopes alive.
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Same Game Multi
Izak Rankine returns to the Gold Coast line-up having booted 3+ goals in three straight games. Mabior Chol has kicked 3+ in three of his last four games.
David Swallow has had 20+ disposals in seven straight games.
Value Bet
Gold Coast have flexed their muscles three times in their last six games against bad opposition, beating Hawthorn, North and Adelaide each by 40+ points. Essendon have been in that class of opposition all year and will suffer a similar fate if they can’t get their hands on the ball in contest.
