AFL Tips – Collingwood v Geelong – Round 3 2022

A remarkable trend looks set to continue.

Best Bet

Under 166.5 Total Points ($1.90)

The under has cashed in 11 of the last 12 games between these two sides and should do so again.

The total has been set at a very high 166.5, more than four goals above the average between these two sides of 140.5. It’s also higher than the MCG night average of 160.

Geelong’s first two games of the season have both gone over, but Round 1 was an aberration due to Essendon not turning up, and Round 2 needed Sydney to have a freakish night in front of goal (17.5) to go over the number.

The Cats have conceded a shot at goal accuracy of 64% this season and that number is certain to regress towards the mean.

Collingwood certainly look a rejuvenated side under new coach Craig McRae with a big emphasis on handball, but Geelong’s defence and midfield pressure poses a vastly different challenge to that of St. Kilda and Adelaide.

With a couple of showers expected as well, the under looks an outstanding play.

Same Game Multi

Total Points Under 166.5 / Geelong H2H / Taylor Adams 25+ Disposals / Brad Close & Jack Ginnivan 1+ Goal

Geelong don’t appear to have lost anything in 2021 and should be able to win here. Adams dropped off last week with a migraine but should be back to his ball winning best, while Ginnivan and Close have made tremendous starts to the season as small forwards.

Value Bet

Brandan Parfitt 30+ Disposals

Parfitt was quiet last week against the Swans but had plenty of footy in Round 1 against Essendon. He also cracked 30 against the Pies last year.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.