The last Saturday in September has arrived with one of last two grand final losers, the Swans and the Lions, set to take home a flag. Check out our preview below for all the tips for the big game.
| Market | Tip |
|---|---|
| Best Bets | Brisbane +4.5 ($1.90) |
| Total Points | Over 170.5 ($1.90) |
| Value Bet | Brisbane 40+ ($8.00) |
| Player Props / SGMs | Same Game Multi Tips |
| Norm Smith Medal | Norm Smith Medal Tips |
| First Goal | First Goal Tips |
Best Bet
Brisbane have been the outstanding team in the second half of their season and can ride this wave of momentum to the 2024 flag.
It was a slow start for the Lions after last year’s Grand Final loss, but their underlying numbers were mostly fine – it was poor conversion in the forward half costing them a better win/loss record.
Since the bye, the Lions have gone 13-2 with losses only to the Pies (by one point) and Giants (by 18, despite having seven more scoring shots).
Brisbane are only the second side to come from outside the Top 4 to make a Grand Final and ironically, the only other team to do so (the Dogs in 2016) beat the Swans in the Grand Final.
The Swans had a more conventional ride to the Grand Final, winning home finals against the Giants and the Power. The Swans have now won five straight, but have unquestionably had the easier path to the decider.
These sides met in Round 20 at the Gabba where the Lions won a two point thriller. Importantly, they also convincingly won key metrics such as clearances and Inside 50s, which are a strong pointer to success in this game.
Both teams have had their issues at the MCG, but the Lions look to have well and truly come to grips with the home of football. After losing last year’s decider by four points, they have won two of three there this year, with their only loss being to the Pies. Their Preliminary Final win over Geelong was one for the ages.
Sydney have also won two of three at the ‘G this year but it’s hard to feel that they are not disadvantaged by their last game there being in Round 8. Their only loss, for what it’s worth, came against Richmond.
Talent wise, both teams are evenly matched, but the Lions look to have a bigger spread of match winners, as shown last Saturday when Callum Ah Chee and Cam Rayner stepped up in the key moments.
Sydney have elite players in Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden, but it feels like all three of those have to play big games for the Swans to win. The Swans defence has been patchy at times, even allowing bad teams to pile on big scores against them.
When those two factors converge the Swans have been beatable, as we saw in Rounds 17 to 22 when they lost five out of six games.
It won’t be talent that wins this game – it will be mindset. At multiple points in the season Brisbane have stared disaster in the face yet found a way through.
The battle hardened Lions look primed to cause an upset in this year’s Grand Final.
Total Points
The over is a strong play in this game.
While the under did hit when these sides met in Round 20, the over cashed in the previous four encounters between these two sides.
12 of 19 day games at the MCG have gone under this year and Grand Finals have a history of being surprisingly high scoring, with the last three overs having hit.
Both of these sides are offensive powerhouses, with the Lions having scored 99, 105 and 95 in their three finals, while the Swans have scored 88 and 95.
Value Bet
Large margins are highly common in Grand Finals and the 40+ and looks great value here with our confidence in the Lions.
Six of the last ten deciders have seen a 40+ point margin – and the 2020 decider, with shortened game time, was won by 31 points.
Once the back of a team is broken in a Grand Final, there’s not much left to play for, so if you like the Swans, the same bet is a good play.
For more AFL Grand Final Tips, check out our Player Props & Same Game Multis, First Goal Tips and our Norm Smith Medal tips throughout the week.
