North’s shocking run looks set to continue at Marvel on Saturday night.
Best Bet
Carlton -27.5 ($1.90)
Every team is a bad match up for North Melbourne at present, but Carlton are a particularly horrifying one.
The midfield battle should be a cakewalk for the Blues. Carlton rank #2 for contested possession differential at +82, North are 16th at -68. Mark Pittonet’s absence undoubtedly hurts, but the Roos will also be missing Tristan Xerri, who has taken the #1 mantle from the out of-form veteran Todd Goldstein in recent weeks.
Carlton should win this game comfortably on their midfield advantage alone before we even discuss the dumpster fire that could unfold in North’s backline.
The Kangas enter this match-up without suspended full back Ben McKay, leaving the out-gunned duo of Aiden Corr and Josh Walker to man one of the AFL’s most dangerous tall forward combinations in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.
It will not end well.
Jeremy Cameron ripped the Corr/Walker combination apart last week, booting seven goals. Tom Hawkins also kicked four on McKay. Without their #1 defender, the Roos could easily give up 10+ goals to McKay and Curnow here.
This reeks of a third-straight blowout loss for North Melbourne.
Same Game Multi
Carlton -27.5 / S.Walsh 30+ Disposals / A.Cerra 25+ Disposals / C.Curnow 3+ Goals ($4.75)
Carlton have the highest disposal differential of any team in 2022. Targeting their mids to rack up the touches against the worst team in the AFL is a solid strategy.
Sam Walsh has had 36 and 38 touches in his last two games while Adam Cerra has cleared 30 in his last two games.
Like Jeremy Cameron last week, Charlie Curnow has the athleticism to really trouble North’s defence.
Value Bet
C.Curnow 5+ Goals ($6.00) & 6+ Goals ($11.00)
Charlie has already snagged two bags of five from his six games this year and he won’t get a better opportunity for another than this.
McKay is certainly worth a play too but Josh Walker should go to him and is a capable 1v1 defender against less-athletic key forwards. He’s also yet to kick five in any game this year.
