AFL Tips – Adelaide v Richmond

Richmond head to Adelaide Oval on Saturday night as enormous outsiders, with the weather shaping as the most interesting part of the market.

Best Bet

Richmond Under 52.5 Points

Team Total Points

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$1.90

The obvious call is Adelaide to win this by plenty, but with up to 10mm of rain predicted the Richmond total is the better play.

The Tigers have been horrible all year and their inability to score against top eight sides has been a consistent feature of the season.

They have averaged just 56.4 points across eight games against top eight opposition, and managed only 52 and 48 in their last two against the Bulldogs and Hawthorn.

The Crows are the competition’s second best defence this year, conceding 79 points a game. They did give up 73 to Essendon last week, but Peter Wright kicked more than half of that himself and the Bombers were beneficiaries of some very generous umpiring.

Take the Tigers to stay quiet.

Same Game Multi

Adelaide 40+ Margin, Under 157.5 Points, J.Dawson 25+ Disposals, J.Rachele 2+ Goals

Same Game Multi

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$6.00

Presuming the rain arrives, and with 70% of rain affected games going under since 2010, this should stay below the total with Richmond unlikely to hit the scoreboard much.

Inside mids should benefit from the conditions, and Jordan Dawson has had 25 or more disposals in four straight against the Tigers.

Josh Rachele has kicked two or more in five straight against Richmond.

Value Bet

C.Ah Chee 2+ Goals

Player Goals

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$3.70

Ah Chee looks a good price for a double here.

It has been a frustrating year with injury, but he returned with two goals against Essendon last week to make it five across his last three games.

He has also kicked a goal in four straight against the Tigers.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.