AFL Tips – Adelaide v Collingwood – Round 18 2022

The Pies have dominated the Crows in recent years and this should continue.

Best Bet

Collingwood -9.5

Collingwood have a phenomenal record against Adelaide in recent years and nothing about their 2022 form suggests this should change.

The Pies have won their last five against the Crows with a draw in 2017. Even more significantly for bettors, the Pies have covered in the last seven straight.

Adelaide Oval has been no help to the Crows, as four of the last five games between the two sides have been at home. The Pies seemingly love playing there, having won their last six outings at the ground by an average of 36 points.

The Pies are a legitimate Top 8 side, and the Crows record against the top sides this year has been abysmal. They have won just once against a top 8 team, and concede an average of 96.3 points per games in these matches.

While Collingwood’s more direct ball movement has been a highlight, in recent weeks their defence has started to catch up. Since Round 10 the Pies have conceded just 66.1 points per game, ranked second in the league.

While there is rain forecast for Adelaide on Saturday, the Pies have shown when beating Gold Coast and GWS in recent weeks that they can thrive in these conditions.

With a line set under two goals, Collingwood should clear easily.

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Same Game Multi

Collingwood -9.5, A. Johnson 1+ Goals, T. Walker 3+ Goals

Ash Johnson on debut for the Pies is a pure forward and looks exceptional value for a snag.

One of Collingwood’s vulnerabilities is to elite key forwards. Nick Larkey was the latest to post a big bag against the Pies last week. Tex can easily bag three in his current form.

Value Bet

Collingwood 40+

There appears to be a massive gulf in class between these two sides. Pair that with Collingwood’s outstanding record in Adelaide, and a blowout could be on the cards.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.