AFL Tips – Adelaide v Carlton – Round 20 2022

Adelaide are on track for a third-straight bottom four finish and look set for another big loss at home against Carlton on Saturday night.

Best Bet

Carlton -13.5

This line looks incredibly generous for a very ordinary Adelaide outfit.

The Crows have won just two of their last 12 games and covered the line in four. At home, they’ve only covered in one of their last six. Nine of their last ten losses have come by more than 20 points, including a 48 point loss to Carlton back in Round 8.

On that occasion, the Blues kicked their equal highest score of 2022 (116 points) with Charlie Curnow bagging six goals. Harry McKay chipped in with three as well.

Carlton should regain Marc Pittonet from injury this week. He’s a massive step up from the inexperienced, yet exciting, Tom De Koning as starting ruck. The Blues rank last for hitouts-to-advantage differential over the last four weeks so Patty Cripps, Sam Walsh and co. will be salivating at the prospect of some silver service from Pittonet.

Michael Voss’ team have pumped West Coast and GWS in the last three games and with the finals race heating up, should easily account for an equally mediocre Adelaide Crows this week.

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Same Game Multi

Carlton -13.5, C.Curnow 3+ Goals, H.McKay 2+ Goals, N.Newman 20+ Disposals

Confidence levels are incredibly high in Carlton for this game so we’ll look to their twin towers for plenty of snags.

Nic Newman has recorded 20+ disposals in seven of his last nine games.

Value Bet

Carlton 40+
Big Win Little Win
Carlton 60+
Big Win Little Win

Five of Adelaide’s twelve losses have come by more than 40 points this season and this looks likely to be another. A 60+ margin at $9.50 is certainly within grasp if Curnow or McKay get off the chain.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.