The Coleman Medal is one of the AFL’s most prestigious awards. Given to the leading goal kicker of each year’s home and away season, the medal has been won by some of the game’s greats including Tony Lockett, Jason Dunstall, Leigh Matthews and Malcolm Blight.
Predicting a Coleman Medal winner can be tricky. In 2021, Carlton’s Harry McKay won the award after being as much as $41 pre-season. However, we can look at history to find an edge.
Here are Betseeker’s best bets to find a winner for the 2024 Coleman Medal.
Coleman Medal Betting Tips
1. Age is a Barrier
Only one Coleman Medal winner has been aged 30+ this century – Tom Hawkins in the heavily COVID-affected 2020 season.
2. Land of the Giants
No Coleman Medalist has been shorter than 191cm since Tony Modra in 1997.
The last seven have all been 194cm+ with Harry McKay the tallest at 204cm (2021).
Steer clear of the small forwards.
3. Experience Counts for Little
The Coleman can be won by relatively inexperienced players.
Harry McKay had only played 48 games prior to his Coleman-winning 2021 season.
Jack Riewoldt and Buddy Franklin had played just 46 and 56 games respectively prior to winning their first Colemans.
4. Back the Elite Picks
Only two Coleman medalists have not been first round draft picks since 2010 – Tom Hawkins (Pick #41 in 2006) and Jeremy Cameron, who was a priority selection for GWS in 2010.
5. You Need a Clean Bill of Health
It’s obviously pretty hard to kick goals when you’re not on the park so health is critical to a player’s Coleman chances.
In fact, no Coleman Medal winner has missed more than three games since 2000.
This has occurred four times, however (McKay 2021, Franklin 2011 & 2014, Lloyd 2001).
6. Better the Team, Better the Chances
Better teams obviously kick more goals. The average ladder position for a Coleman winner’s team is 6.5 since 2000.
Only 8 of the last 24 winners didn’t play in a finals team and only two played in a bottom four team (Riewoldt in 2010 and Brendan Fevola in 2006).
7. Goals are Drying Up
The days of Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall kicking 100+ goals a season are well past us, with the average goals per game needed to win the Coleman just 2.99 over the last five years.
For some context, Jason Dunstall averaged 6.59 goals per game in 1992.
8. There’s Only Room For One Top Dog
While having a variety of forward targets is beneficial from a team perspective, it doesn’t necessarily help a player’s Coleman Medal odds.
Only twice since 2010 has a Coleman Medal winner had a teammate finish in the top 10 for goals – Jeremy Finlayson finished 8th in Cameron’s 2019 win and Buddy finished fourth behind Jarryd Roughead in 2013.
