Tennis Tips - US Open Day 4 Tips

Carlos Alcaraz won through his first round match in straight sets, but will his second round match be a bit more difficult for the underdone Spaniard?

Best Bet

Mariano Navone +3.5

Game Handicap

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Coming off the first round win against a clearly injured and unwell Novak Djokovic, but the Argentine will take it.

He now faces Matteo Berrettini, who he must consider himself a chance against, considering he beat the Italian in Canada a few weeks ago on hard.

As favourite on all surfaces against top-100 opposition, Berrettini is 6-8 with a game handicap coverage of 23% – mainly due to his return struggles, with a lot of his sets won in tiebreaks.

I can see Navone not just covering the handicap here, but beating Berrettini once again.

Next Best

Jasmine Paolini 2-0

Set Betting

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$2.00

Seriously underdone, but Jasmine Paolini will be happy to dust off the cobwebs in her first-round win, and now faces countrywoman Lucrezia Stefanini.

Stefanini has been on tour a long time, but never done too much damage. From her 11 matches against top-50 opposition over her career, she’s 0-11, and has only won a total of two sets from those matches.

Paolini has played her fellow Italian twice across their career, winning both matches in straight sets.

Toby Samuel +4.5

Game Handicap

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The Brit has done well of late, notching quite a few wins on the challenger circuit to move into a career best ranking of 109. Samuel smashed an underdone Machac in the first-round, and he can trouble Lehecka in this.

The Czech has a tendency of playing down to the level of his opposition, and from his six hard court matches this year against players ranked outside the top-100, he’s 4-2 while covering the game handicap just once.

Lehecka’s recent form has been solid without being great, while he did cover against Carreno Busta in the first-round, the win itself wasn’t overly convincing.

Pegula vs Kenin Over 18.5

Total Games

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On paper, Pegula should wipe Kenin off the court, but their head to head record suggests otherwise.

Pegula leads the head to head 4-2, with both of Kenin’s wins coming when she was a top-5 player in the world, but there’s a clear trend over these six matches, and it’s games overs.

Their first four meetings went to three sets, while Pegula’s two most recent wins in straight sets still were well over 18.5 games, with both matches featuring a set going to seven.

Kenin isn’t the same player she once was, but she should enter this with a level of confidence knowing she can compete with the world number three.

Faria vs Alcaraz Over 3.5

Total Sets

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Alcaraz won in straight sets in his opening round against Safiullin, but it was far from dominant, with a serve and return percentage of just 102.9 – the eighth lowest of the Day 1 and Day 2 winners in the men’s draw.

Faria is much better on clay, but he can certainly produce a high level of tennis. The Portuguese has played in five matches against top-20 opposition since last year, and he has won at least one set in four of them, including beating Shelton in Cincinnati a few weeks back.

The Spaniard should be winning this, but I don’t think we’ll see him at his dominant self this US Open.

Value Bet

Caty McNally

Match

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$2.10

Emma Navarro has fallen away in a big way in 2026, and I’m surprised to see her favourite.

The American is 3-12 on hard court against top-100 opposition this year, with her most recent win against Kalinina who just lost to the world number 144 in the first-round here.

McNally has been solid on hard this year with a 14-11 record, and 7-7 against top-100, which includes beating Noskova in Toronto. The 24-year-old beat her countrywoman on grass in June, and won’t get a better chance to progress through the draw of a major.

Multi

Tiafoe (M) / Nakashima (M) / Paul (M) / Shelton (M) / Paolini (W) / Noskova (W) = $5.10

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.