Tennis Tips - US Open Day 3 Tips

The last of the first round matches on Day 3 of the US Open, and a little known Australian could pull off a major upset at a price.

Best Bet

Magdalena Frech +4.5

Game Handicap

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$1.80

This won’t be easy for American teenage sensation Iva Jovic.

Jovic went just 2-2 in the hard court lead-up to the US Open, while Magdalena Frech has been solid – unfortunately for the Pole she came up against Pegula twice and Rybakina once in the lead-up.

Frech’s coverage rate as an underdog on hard courts is strong though in 2026, running at 80% while covering in nine of her last ten matches on hard as an outsider. Jovic on the other hand has covered in just 14% of hard court matches this year against top-50 opposition.

Next Best

Cobolli vs Comesana Under 36.5

Total Games

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$1.80

Comesana isn’t a hard courter. The Argentine is just 3-7 on hard courts on main tour this year, and there’s plenty of ‘throw in the towel’ sets involved which results in bulk under games.

From those ten matches, just one has gone overs this year – while his opponent Cobolli has a similar record on hard courts.

When the Italian is favourite on hard court, only 33% of his matches go over the total games. I think we’ll see Cobolli wipe the floor with Comesana in this.

Maria Sakkari

Game Handicap

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$1.80

Sakkari has struggled on tour for a few years now, but the Greek has managed to move back to 33 in the world, off the back of her hard court results.

From her last 20 hard court matches the Greek has struggled as underdog with just a 2-6 record, but she’s dominated as favourite with a 10-2 record, covering the game handicap in 83% of those matches.

Her opponent here is Robyn Montgomery, who had a strong grass court season, but on hard court against top-100 opposition she’s lost her last four matches without winning a set.

Giron vs Buse Over 39.5

Total Games

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$1.80

Buse really should win this match, but going from Winston Salem Champion straight into the US Open gives Giron a chance.

The American is in horrible form in the lead-up, and is 1-6 as underdog on hard courts this season, but six of those seven matches have gone over the total games with a lot of the sets going to seven.

Although Buse has only been favourite three times on main tour this year on hard court, all three matches went over the total games.

Bencic vs Putintseva Under 19.5

Total Games

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$1.83

Belinda Bencic has a strong record at Flushing Meadows as a Semi Finalist back in 2019, and the Swiss played well on hard courts this year.

When favourite against opposition ranked 5+ this year, Bencic is 9-2 including an injury withdrawal – and the total games have gone over in just 30% of matches.

She faces veteran Yulia Putintseva, whose ranking continues to drift towards 100. The Kazakh has played in ten hard court matches as underdog this year, with only 30% of those going over the total games. Although Bencic is the likely winner, whatever the result we should see this unders.

Value Bet

Dane Sweeny

Match

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$3.50

Corentin Moutet is here for the pay check. The Frenchman has been struggling with a wrist injury for a while now, with a 2026 record of 10-19, winning just two of his last 13 matches.

Dane Sweeny hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire, but he must be healthier than Moutet.

Moutet withdrew from Cincinnati three weeks ago and went to social media saying “living with this pain has become too difficult.” Surely this hasn’t resolved itself in three weeks – give me the Australian.

Multi

Musetti (M) / Struff (M) / Cobolli (M) / Lys (W) / Sakkari (W) / Bencic (W) = $6.90

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.