Tennis Tips - US Open Day 1 Tips

Plenty of Australians in action on Day 1, including our best bet and value bet top kick-off the 2026 US Open.

Best Bet

Talia Gibson

Match

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$1.90

The Australian has produced a really strong hard court year with a 25-11 record – a lot of those wins at qualifier level, but she did have two really good performances in the American hard-court swing to start 2026.

Gibson made the Quarter Finals of Indian Wells with wins over Paolini, Alexandrova and Tauson, losing to Linda Noskova in three sets. The Australian backed it up in Miami, making a Round of 16 run with wins over Osaka and Jovic.

Donna Vekic is 7-11 on hard this year, but on main tour that record is 2-9. If Gibson can show signs of the early year hard court form, she’ll win this convincingly.

Next Best

Alexander Shevchenko +5.5

Game Handicap

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$1.74

Not exactly a Shevchenko fan, but the Kazakh should make a match of this.

He’s played a lot of tennis on hard courts this year – quite the opposite to Dino Prizmic who is just 7-5 on hard courts including qualifiers and Davis Cup.

The Croatian withdrew from Winston Salem sighting injury, and lost to the world 185 in straight sets in Quebec in the lead-up. If he wins, it won’t be regulation.

Cam Norrie -3.5

Game Handicap

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$1.80

You never know what you’ll get from Cam Norrie, which is probably why we get a short-ish line in this, but I’m backing the Brit in on recent form.

Norrie made the Semi Final in Los Cabos, and backed it up with a Round of 16 run in Canada, including wins over De Minaur and Buse – the latter just winning Winston Salem.

He faces the Frenchman Van Assche, who won Quebec in the lead-up, but he’s very much a clay courter. Van Assche is 2-14 on hard courts against top-50 opposition over his career, and in his last 13 matches on hard court against top-100 opposition he’s 4-9 – all four opponents ranked outside the top-90.

The Brit holds a 3-1 career record against Van Assche – can’t see him failing to cover here.

Thiago Agustin Tirante -4.5

Game Handicap

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$1.72

Tirante is much improved in 2026 on all surfaces, and knocked off Novak Djokovic in the lead-up.

The Argentine reached the Round of 16 in Canada, beating Taylor Fritz along the way, while his Quarter Final run in Cincinnati included the Djokovic scalp and Jakub Mensik.

Tirante will play Adrian Mannarino with the 38 year old’s career now very much a roller coaster – either notching consecutive wins, or going on heavy losing streaks. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he’s lost his last four matches on hard courts without winning a set, and I can’t see him troubling Tirante.

Bublik vs Wolf Over 37.5

Total Games

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$1.83

After reaching the top-ten last year, Bublik’s ranking has slipped to 16 in the world and could quite easily plummet further.

The Kazakh hasn’t played since July, with his last match on hard courts back in March, losing three of his last four on the surface.

As for JJ Wolf, he’s been trying to rebuild his career this year after missing a year due to injury, but does enter the US Open winning seven of his last eight matches including the Vancouver challenger. Fair to say, Wolf’s preparation has been better than Bublik’s, and in front of the American crowd could make a match of this.

Value Bet

Alexsandar Vukic

Match

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$2.35

Hard to get a handle on Alexsandar Vukic, but the Australian did win a challenger in July on hard, while getting through qualifying to reach the Round of 16 at Washington.

He has experience at majors on hard courts, which is more we can say about his opponent Rei Sakamoto.

This will be the second major Sakamoto has qualified for, and although he’s won through qualifying here, the Japanese’s record isn’t great on the surface across his career, at just 4-7 against top-150 opposition. Feel this should be closer to even money.

Multi

Paul (M) / Tirante (M) / Norrie (M) / Rinderknech (M) / Djokovic (M) / Krejcikova (W) = $4.63

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.