Both Scotland and Italy will not get a better hope of winning a game at this World Cup than in this one when the teams meet at Kingston Park in Newcastle.
Italy have been the subject of a big go in betting markets leading into this opener and suspect they will collect the cash as this Scotland team is the worst they have sent to a World Cup in a long time.
The Azzurri have firmed from 16.5-point underdogs to +12 with them most likely to start below the two converted try number.
Italy have just two NRL players – Nathan Brown and Cooper Johns – but nearly their entire starting team is playing at a decent level below in Australia, be it the NSW Cup or Queensland Cup.
Scotland has a handful of Super League players along with Euan Aitken but their team drops away markedly after that. A thrashing at the hands of the England Knights last week was telling as to where the Bravehearts are at.
The start here is just far too big.
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Luke Polselli has 23 try involvements and 14 line breaks in just 18 Queensland Cup appearances this year.
Veteran Richard Lepori knocks around the lower leagues in England, playing for Swinton these days, but has 12 tries in 11 appearances for Italy.
Fullback Luke Polselli is a ridiculous price to score a try. He has 23 tries in 30 Queensland Cup games with the Sunshine Coast Falcons. He also busted 72 tackles in 18 games this year. Get in the queue.